
这个市场不值得进入,结论很明确:已经进入明显价格战区,且对新品牌和小商家都极不友好。 目前新品牌总数20个、旧品牌22个,新增品牌已经很多;更致命的是,新品牌新上架35个里只有1个赚钱,成功率仅2.86%,远低于10%的高风险线,最近新增的产品也大多落在亏损或低毛利区,市场不是在“成长”,而是在往更激烈的低价竞争走。
证据也很直接:新产品利润区间只有-28.48%到8.57%,意味着大多数新货连10%健康线都达不到,已经是典型的价格战市场。 近一年的新上架里,2025年和2026年几乎都是“多数亏损、少数勉强活着”,而且赚钱样本非常少;真正能跑出来的只有 Nekmit 的 B0FH4C9J7Z,售价12.99美元,月销700件,月营收9093美元,利润率19.84%,靠的是低价、花卉外观、贴纸和功能差异化。相反,SKYDUE 的 B0H4QGK1HJ 售价9.23美元,利润率只有7.79%,vornika 的 B0H36549YV 售价8.45美元,利润率为-6.16%,inkhorizon 的 B0FPBL24Q9 甚至是-10.29%;这些都说明,只要没有明显差异化,单纯跟着做桌历基本会被成本和竞争压死。
对大品牌来说,虽然预算门槛本身不算高,但这不是“砸钱就能赢”的市场;对小商家来说,50万CNY足够做单个ASIN前期启动,却不够扭转这个类目的低利润现实。 你如果硬要进,唯一可参考的是 Nekmit 这类真正做出外观和功能差异的新品,以及 Thboxes 的 B0GD11ZPKS(10.61美元,月营收1061美元,利润率约10%~20%)和 Zuozee 的 B0F3H25CV4 / B0F3HCRM8W 这类基于旧款做小型化、设计区分的产品;但要注意,很多老品牌如 SKYDUE 虽然有规模和销量,但其新款利润已经压到7.79%,说明这个赛道正在把所有人都拖进低毛利。短结论:不要进。 如果非要做,只能靠强设计差异、功能更新和持续投放,不适合按常规打法入场。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
这不是一个值得进入的市场:整体已接近价格战区,利润太薄,而且新品牌成功率极低。 你的预算 50万CNY 虽然足够覆盖单个ASIN的早期入场成本,但不足以改变这个类目里“低利润+高失败率”的现实;更关键的是,市场里大量新入场品牌都在亏钱,强行进去只会被迫卷价格和投放。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入,结论很明确:已进入价格战区,且对新品牌极不友好。 可见的新品牌新上架里,盈利率只有28.6%,但非盈利率高达91.43%;整个市场可识别盈利产品比例只有4.81%,新上架产品盈利比例更低,只有3.64%。这说明不是“还能做”,而是大多数新产品一上架就被成本和竞争压垮。
这个市场不适合进入,属于明显的价格战/过度拥挤市场,不能给大品牌或小商家打‘高成功概率’。 关键原因是:新品牌里可验证的盈利只剩 Nekmit 这一家,而新产品亏损占比高达 91.43%,新品牌新上架产品的亏损率高到 91.43%,说明多数新进入者都在赔钱;同时已知利润率里,低于10%的产品占比很高,市场几乎被低毛利挤满,进入后很容易被卷进低价竞争。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B0FH4C9J7Z | Nekmit | 2025-11-10 | Yes | $12.99 | 700pcs | $9093.0 | 19.84% | $1804.06 |
![]() | B0GD11ZPKS | Thboxes | 2025-12-31 | Yes | $10.61 | 100pcs | $1061.0 | 10.31% | $109.39 |
![]() | B0D91J5DNY | Zuozee | 2024-07-28 | Yes | $10.0 | 50pcs | $500.0 | 17.06% | $85.3 |
![]() | B0F3H25CV4 | Zuozee | 2025-05-09 | Yes | $9.99 | 50pcs | $499.5 | 15.51% | $77.48 |
![]() | B0F3HCRM8W | Zuozee | 2025-05-09 | Yes | $8.99 | 50pcs | $449.5 | 11.44% | $51.43 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0FH4C9J7Z | Nekmit | 2025-11-10 | Yes | $12.99 | 700pcs | $9093.0 | 19.84% | $1804.06 |
![]() | B0GD11ZPKS | Thboxes | 2025-12-31 | Yes | $10.61 | 100pcs | $1061.0 | 10.31% | $109.39 |
结论很直接:这个市场不值得进,已经进入极度红海,价格战严重,且新品牌成功率只有3.64%,远低于10%的高风险线。 对大品牌和小品牌都不友好;如果硬要进,只能靠更高投入、强设计差异化和持续营销,但这不属于“好市场”。
证据很清楚。 目前可识别利润产品只有4.81%,新产品里96.97%不赚钱;新品牌新上架里只有1个赚钱样本,而32个不赚钱,说明新人进来大概率失败。市场里真正赚钱的新品牌是 Nekmit,ASIN B0FH4C9J7Z,定价12.99美元,月销700件,月营收9093美元,利润率19.84%(空运下也只有11.15%,再往差一点就掉到8.71%),它靠的是低价 + 花卉外观 + 贴纸 + 功能差异化,且只投入了适配这个单品的前期成本;同类成功老品牌是 Thboxes 的 B0GD11ZPKS,月营收1061美元,利润率也只是10%~20%区间。反过来,失败样本大量集中在 MOOJULY、SKYDUE、Gorsbark、UOOJZC 等品牌,很多产品利润落在0%~10%甚至为负,像 B0D7MBGCF3、B0F4DC4414、B0F4DG9MK2 都是“好看但没差异、利润太薄”的典型。更关键的是,UOOJZC 有7个新产品失败,说明不是个别产品问题,而是整体打法失效。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
结论很直接:这个市场不值得进入,已经进入明显的拥挤和价格战状态。 近期开新品牌几乎都在亏,真正能跑出来的新品成功率只有3.03%,而且成功者极少;这不是适合新品牌或小商家去赌的市场。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| 2026 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2025/10 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2025/11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |