
结论很直接:这个市场不值得进入,已经接近价格战和品牌战的高风险区。 新品牌能赚钱的比例只有13.16%,新品整体失败率高达86.84%,而且近几个月新品牌持续涌入,但大多数都没跑出来,说明竞争是在变差,不是在变好。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
这不是一个适合进入的市场:对大多数新卖家来说,预算够不够不是核心问题,核心问题是已经进入了价格战和品牌战。 目前可见的新品牌里,SIPHLAN 3/10 盈利、Fiora Naturals 1/1 盈利、Somniare 0/2 盈利;整体新上架盈利率只有 12.5%,而全市场可识别盈利率也只有 35.34%,说明机会并不宽,且新品牌成败分化很大。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入。新品利润看起来不差,但市场已经进入高强度内卷:新品牌盈利率只有14.81%,新品牌新品亏损率高达81.48%,而且近几个月新品牌新品数量明显增加,竞争在升温,不是降温。
从证据看,能赚钱的案例几乎都在复制“酒店同款香型”这条路,但真正跑出来的不是小品牌轻资产逻辑,而是要么靠老品牌势能,要么靠极强的投放和铺货。老品牌 Air-Scent 的 B0DMWGCC4S 月销6000、月收入1799.4万,B0D5WL3GLY 月销2000、月收入599.8万,利润率都在38%左右;它们属于明显的强势大品牌样本,不是小商家可直接照搬的案例。新品牌里真正站稳的只有 SIPHLAN 的 B0GH8JBC2Y,售价19.99美元,利润率24.97%,月销200、月收入39.98万,发布后38条评论;但同品牌另外两条新品 B0GGJHFCDK、B0GGJHF56T 也只是同样路线下的中等表现,另外7个新品全亏,品牌新品盈利率只有30%。更危险的是,Somniare 的两个新品 B0GYWBZC59、B0GYWG9VMG 都亏,说明这条赛道不是“做出来就能卖”,而是“做得像也未必赢”。
给你的结论很直接:大品牌可以借势切入,但要准备重投入;小品牌不建议进场,除非你能做出明显差异化和更强的品牌背书。可参考的成功样本是 Air-Scent 的 B0DMWGCC4S / B0D5WL3GLY,以及新品牌里相对可模仿的 SIPHLAN 的 B0GH8JBC2Y;可复制的点是“酒店灵感香型、礼盒感包装、多场景兼容、20美元左右定价”。但对小品牌来说,真正该学的是 SIPHLAN 这类新品的打法,而不是 Air-Scent 的老品牌打法;如果你只能做普通香型复刻、没有研发/品牌/投放预算,建议直接放弃。
这个市场不适合现在进入:新品利润被压在低位,且新品牌成功率只有15.38%,失败率84.62%,已经明显进入高竞争区。 但这不是“完全没钱赚”,而是只有少数带品牌力、选品差异化足够强的玩家能活下来;对小商家来说,不走强营销或强差异化基本很难赢。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B0DMWGCC4S | Air-Scent | 2024-11-01 | Yes | $29.99 | 6000pcs | $179940.0 | 38.2% | $68737.08 |
![]() | B0D5WL3GLY | Air-Scent | 2024-06-05 | Yes | $29.99 | 2000pcs | $59980.0 | 38.39% | $23026.33 |
![]() | B09YZ57S5H | Scentify | 2022-08-10 | Yes | $30.0 | 1000pcs | $30000.0 | 35.26% | $10578.0 |
![]() | B0BQZF5CHW | Scentify | 2022-08-12 | Yes | $30.0 | 700pcs | $21000.0 | 36.97% | $7763.7 |
![]() | B0DPZYPRL9 | Air-Scent | 2024-12-11 | Yes | $29.99 | 600pcs | $17994.0 | 37.85% | $6810.73 |
![]() | B0DMWD8Q3M | Air-Scent | 2024-11-01 | Yes | $19.99 | 1000pcs | $19990.0 | 29.89% | $5975.02 |
![]() | B084WKW6F7 | sesneslabs | 2020-02-12 | Yes | $18.32 | 1000pcs | $18320.0 | 30.69% | $5622.41 |
![]() | B0BQZDCQD1 | Scentify | 2022-08-12 | Yes | $30.0 | 400pcs | $12000.0 | 36.8% | $4416.0 |
![]() | B0DF471Z8F | Lifelines | 2024-08-23 | Yes | $29.88 | 300pcs | $8964.0 | 36.0% | $3227.04 |
![]() | B0D5WKHKS2 | Air-Scent | 2024-06-05 | Yes | $19.99 | 500pcs | $9995.0 | 29.64% | $2962.52 |
![]() | B08KDLPRMC | Doratelier | 2020-09-29 | Yes | $18.31 | 500pcs | $9155.0 | 30.12% | $2757.49 |
![]() | B07WM1YZXK | Maple Holistics | 2019-08-12 | Yes | $11.95 | 1000pcs | $11950.0 | 20.42% | $2440.19 |
![]() | B0BQZDKJHG | Scentify | 2022-08-12 | Yes | $30.0 | 200pcs | $6000.0 | 36.87% | $2212.21 |
![]() | B084RY8L85 | REVIVEEO | 2020-11-04 | Yes | $16.0 | 400pcs | $6400.0 | 27.56% | $1763.84 |
![]() | B0DPZZ166M | Air-Scent | 2024-12-11 | Yes | $19.99 | 200pcs | $3998.0 | 29.87% | $1194.21 |
![]() | B0CHQMMPN8 | Scentify | 2023-07-04 | Yes | $30.0 | 100pcs | $3000.0 | 36.94% | $1108.2 |
![]() | B07X2ZVW8Z | REVIVEEO | 2022-12-17 | Yes | $29.0 | 100pcs | $2900.0 | 37.87% | $1098.23 |
![]() | B0BKY1VPXQ | Maple Holistics | 2022-10-30 | Yes | $29.95 | 100pcs | $2995.0 | 35.75% | $1070.72 |
![]() | B0CHQPZ3X8 | Scentify | 2023-07-03 | Yes | $30.0 | 100pcs | $3000.0 | 35.56% | $1066.81 |
![]() | B0G6LTQ9W6 | Fiora Naturals | 2026-03-12 | Yes | $16.16 | 300pcs | $4848.0 | 21.03% | $1019.54 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0G6LTQ9W6 | Fiora Naturals | 2026-03-12 | Yes | $16.16 | 300pcs | $4848.0 | 21.03% | $1019.54 |
![]() | B0GH8JBC2Y | SIPHLAN | 2026-02-24 | Yes | $19.99 | 200pcs | $3998.0 | 24.97% | $998.31 |
![]() | B0GGJHFCDK | SIPHLAN | 2026-02-24 | Yes | $19.99 | 100pcs | $1999.0 | 29.4% | $587.71 |
![]() | B0GGJHF56T | SIPHLAN | 2026-02-24 | Yes | $19.99 | 100pcs | $1999.0 | 28.65% | $572.72 |
![]() | B0FPG99Y4W | Maple Holistics | 2025-09-02 | Yes | $14.95 | 50pcs | $747.5 | 19.51% | $145.84 |
这个市场不适合进入,已经接近/进入严重竞争区,新品牌和老品牌都很难靠正常打法赚钱。 现在新品总体成功率只有13.16%,失败率86.84%;新品牌新品成功率15.38%,但老品牌新品成功率只有8.33%,说明市场不是“新手友好”,而是强者更强、失败面很大。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不适合进入,已经进入高风险竞争区。 近期新品牌新产品成功率只有15.38%,但失败率高达84.62%,而且最近一年几乎所有新增都偏向低利润或未达标,说明竞争在迅速加剧,利润被压得很薄。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |