
这个市场不值得进入:新品牌成功率只有0%,新上架产品几乎全部亏损,整体已经是低利润、强同质化的价格战区。 用户预算500000 CNY看似够做单个ASIN前期启动,但在这个赛道里,钱不是主要问题,问题是即使有预算,也很难靠正常打法跑出稳定盈利。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,用户预算虽然够做单个ASIN的前期启动,但市场本身是明显的价格战区,且几乎没有可复制的盈利案例。 目前可识别的产品里,整体盈利率是0%,新品盈利率也是0%,利润分布里没有任何正向利润段,反而有明显的负利润段;这说明不是“少量低价失败”,而是整个赛道在持续亏钱。
Some categories may not originally require certain certificates for entry; however, some products may target specific features (e.g. Bluetooth) or customers (e.g. children), and additional certificates may be required in the target marketplace (e.g. FCC, CPC).
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这不是一个适合进入的市场:已经明显处在高饱和、价格战和低利润状态。 当前样本里新上架产品盈利率为0%,市场总体可盈利比例也是0%,而且近端新货几乎全是亏损,说明不管是大品牌还是小商家,进去都很难赚钱。
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,属于明显的价格战/过度饱和市场。 新品利润率几乎全线失守,且新进入品牌没有任何成功样本,Small business 和大品牌现在进场都很难赚钱。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Products with negative profitability ranked by lowest profit value. Only includes products classified as non-profitable regardless of release date.
![]() | B01IEGH068 | Otter Pops | 2016-07-13 | No | $6.36 | 10000pcs | $63600.0 | -165.07% | $-104984.52 |
![]() | B0GYG43KQF | JEL SERT | 2026-04-24 | No | $10.98 | 600pcs | $6588.0 | -88.36% | $-5821.15 |
![]() | B082W38WGK | kool pops | 2020-01-15 | No | $7.71 | 50pcs | $385.5 | -38.6% | $-148.8 |
![]() | B004CV5CKG | Tootsie Pops | 2014-02-26 | No | $7.61 | 50pcs | $380.5 | -14.45% | $-54.98 |
![]() | B0D79V6ZCY | JEL SERT | 2024-06-17 | No | $9.13 | -pcs | $- | -19.8% | $- |
![]() | B0DH9FM63V | Fruidles | 2020-09-17 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B078JHF5FP | Top Pops | 2017-12-26 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0D2BHJB75 | Fruidles | 2024-04-21 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0CVJVG9V6 | Zollipops | 2024-02-12 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B078HYMNWF | Zollipops | 2017-12-22 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0GVGNRKPH | Ring Pop | 2026-03-30 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B085FKL14Y | Charms | 2018-04-07 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0FHJFMFMH | Fruidles | 2020-06-25 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
New products with negative profitability ranked by lowest profit value. Only includes newly released products classified as non-profitable.
![]() | B0GYG43KQF | JEL SERT | 2026-04-24 | No | $10.98 | 600pcs | $6588.0 | -88.36% | $-5821.15 |
![]() | B0GVGNRKPH | Ring Pop | 2026-03-30 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
这个市场不值得进入,结论很直接:已经进入价格战和过度拥挤状态。 目前可识别的盈利产品占比为0%,新上架产品盈利占比也是0%;同时,样本里新品牌和老品牌的新发布都没有跑出盈利,说明不是“谁更会做”而是“整个赛道都很难赚”。
证据非常一致:市场里亏损产品占主导,且大多数失败都来自缺乏差异化和同质化竞争。 可见的非盈利样本里,Otter Pops 的 B01IEGH068 月销10000件、月营收636,000美元,但利润率仍是-165.07%;JEL SERT 的 B0GYG43KQF 月销600件、月营收6,588美元,利润率-88.36%;Tootsie Pops 的 B004CV5CKG 利润率-14.45%。市场利润分布里,明确落在-10%以下的产品有4个,而10%以上的产品为0;新发布里也是0个盈利。失败原因几乎都指向“没有独特性”“市场太小或竞争极端”“利润本来就低”,这已经是典型的高风险、低回报、强内卷信号。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不适合进入,结论很明确:已进入价格战/低利润区,小品牌和大品牌都不该现在切入。 证据很直接:近期开新品牌几乎没有形成有效成功,且已出现新品牌与老品牌的新上架都以失败为主,说明不是“还没被做”,而是“已经被做烂了”。
从时间看,市场不是在变好,而是在变差。 近月新增只看到 2026/3、2026/4、2026/7 出现少量新产品,且分别对应 Ring Pop、JEL SERT 的案例:Ring Pop 的 B0GVGNRKPH 是新品牌新上架但不盈利;JEL SERT 的 B0GYG43KQF 也不盈利;只有 B0H8YGTYCP 处于“盈利状态未能确认”的不确定结果。按最近可见样本算,明确盈利率是 0%,非盈利是 100%,这不是可进入信号。新品牌新上架盈利率为 0%,老品牌新上架盈利率也为 0%;同时新品牌非盈利样本里 Ring Pop 占 100%,说明真正的新品牌并没有跑出可复制的成功。
竞争方式也很危险,基本靠同质化和营销硬推,不是靠产品创新。 6 个样本里,失败原因反复出现的是“缺乏独特性”“利润率太低”“市场太小或竞争极端激烈”;例如 B0GVGNRKPH、B0GYG43KQF、B004CV5CKG、B01IEGH068、B082W38WGK 都是常规糖果/冰棒形态,卖点高度雷同。价格集中在 6.36–10.98 美元,但样本里多次被判定低利润或不盈利,说明这类产品很容易陷入低价对打。用户预算是 500000 CNY,看起来够做单个 ASIN,但这里问题不是“钱够不够”,而是即使有预算,也很难靠普通投放与铺货跑出稳定利润;如果想做,往往需要额外的研发、品牌和认证投入,预算并不覆盖这些长期成本。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |