
这个市场不值得进入:已经是明显的价格战+低成功率市场,用户预算虽然够启动单个ASIN,但不够形成有效护城河。 新品牌新发成功率只有4.35%,22个新品里有95.65%不赚钱;近两个月新增几乎全是亏损或未跑通,说明竞争不是变好,而是在继续恶化。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,用户预算可以启动单个ASIN,但不够支撑有效竞争,而且市场已经进入明显的价格战/高失败率状态。新品牌几乎没有稳定成功样本,当前更像是“拼价格、拼流量、拼投放”的红海,不适合大品牌和小商家贸然入场。
证据很硬:市场里可识别盈利产品只占4.29%,新上架产品的盈利率也只有4.35%,这已经是高风险信号;更关键的是,新品牌新发产品盈利率仅5.00%,未盈利率高达95.00%。时间趋势也在走坏:2025年和2026年新上架里,非盈利新品持续堆积,2026年1月到7月几乎都是负面新增,说明竞争不是在放缓,而是在加剧。品牌样本里,TELOENCE 只有1个盈利ASIN B0GKNHDKXL,利润率16.77%,月销约100单、月收入约225,700 CNY,但它是少数例外;QMBIRDSIR 是新品牌却0盈利/3亏损,其中 B0GKHB3MFW 利润率-3.63%、月销50,B0FNR315MM 为-0.32%,说明很多新品牌靠低价也打不穿。老品牌 DEERINE 虽然有盈利款 B0D9BZD34X,但它的整体盈利率也只有6.67%,且还有 14个亏损ASIN,这不是适合小商家模仿的安全样本。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入,已经接近价格战+过度拥挤状态,新品牌和老品牌都很难稳定赚钱。 目前可见的新品牌只有 8 个,但新上新共 23 个,且新品牌新上新盈利率只有 4.35%,整体可盈利产品占比也只有 4.29%;更关键的是,最近新增的产品几乎清一色是亏损或未跑通,说明竞争正在继续恶化,不是变好。
大品牌能进,但要靠更高预算和明显差异化;小品牌基本不该进,除非你能做出明显创新。 这类市场里,低价同质款已经被打穿:QMBIRDSIR 三个新上新全亏,icceemee 三个新上新全亏,TELOENCE 只有 1 个新品盈利但另一个旧款上新失败;老品牌 DEERINE 15 个产品里只有 1 个盈利,成功率 6.67%,也远低于可接受水平。你用户预算 50 万元人民币,理论上够做单个 ASIN,但在这个类目里,预算不是问题,问题是即使花得起,也很难跑出正利润。
可参考的正面案例只有两个:TELOENCE 的 B0GKNHDKXL,售价 22.57 美元,首期投入结构对应的利润率 16.77%,月销约 100 件、月营收 22,570 美元;它的打法不是跟木质翻页台历硬拼,而是做 17×22 英寸大桌垫式月历,叠加便签区和贴纸,靠功能升级和版式差异取胜。DEERINE 的 B0D9BZD34X,售价 13.99 美元,利润率 10.3%,月销约 50 件、月营收 6,995 美元;它仍然是木质翻页台历,但通过木纹外观和桌面装饰属性维持了少量利润。你如果一定要做,大品牌只能学 TELOENCE 这种“大尺寸、强功能、非公版外观”路线;小品牌可学的真实成功案例几乎没有,因为所有可见新品牌成功率都太低,而且 200+ reviews 的老牌/强势品牌不应被当成小品牌样本。
这个市场不可进入:新品牌几乎全军覆没,利润也被压到价格战区。 你现在看到的不是一个能靠普通小品牌自然跑出来的市场,而是一个需要重投入、强品牌或明显差异化才能活下来的低成功率赛道。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B0GKNHDKXL | TELOENCE | 2026-02-09 | Yes | $22.57 | 100pcs | $2257.0 | 16.77% | $378.5 |
![]() | B0D9BZD34X | DEERINE | 2024-07-31 | Yes | $13.99 | 50pcs | $699.5 | 10.3% | $72.05 |
![]() | B09TW5SHFD | PHOENANCEE | 2022-04-21 | Yes | $12.99 | 50pcs | $649.5 | 11.04% | $71.71 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0GKNHDKXL | TELOENCE | 2026-02-09 | Yes | $22.57 | 100pcs | $2257.0 | 16.77% | $378.5 |
这个市场不值得进入:新品牌成功率只有4.35%,整体可识别盈利产品也只有4.29%,而新上架产品里95.65%不赚钱,已经是明显的价格战/高竞争区。更关键的是,市场里几乎没有真正能让小商家复制的成功样本,真正跑出来的只有TELOENCE的B0GKNHDKXL,且它靠的是明显差异化和更高投入,不是低成本可复制模式。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不值得进入,已经进入明显的高风险/接近饱和状态。 近两年新品牌持续涌入,但新品牌成功率只有4.35%,而且近20个新品牌样本里只有1个真正盈利;2025到2026的最新释放几乎全是亏损,说明竞争正在变得更硬、价格战更重。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2026 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |