
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,已经进入价格战并接近饱和。 新品盈利率只有3.92%,新品牌新品盈利率仅3.03%,而新品牌新品亏损率高达96.97%;最近一年的新产品里,95.83%都不盈利,趋势不是机会在变大,而是竞争在继续恶化。
证据也很直接:市场里真正能赚钱的主要是老牌和强品牌,且多数是老链接延伸,不是新手可复制的轻打法。 2026年新发产品里,Dr. Brown's、Boon、Tommee Tippee、Lansinoh、NUK 这些老牌仍在密集推新品,但大多落在低利润或亏损区;比如 Dr. Brown's 的新款 B0GMS177HL 只有 2.17% 利润率,B0H2RQD9TP 甚至还没跑起来。反过来,少数盈利样本里,Dr. Brown's 的老款 B015XBYDLM 有 15.42% 利润率、月销 2万;Lansinoh 的 B0DT4TYNWZ 有 11.98% 利润率、月营收 7.19 万美元、月销 6000;MAM 的 B0BSYL3T5Q 也能做到 14%+。这说明市场不是没钱赚,而是钱都集中在强品牌和成熟老款上,新进入者基本被挤在外面。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
这个市场不该进:已进入价格战/高饱和状态,用户预算500,000 CNY足够做单品启动,但不足以改变竞争格局。 数据上,新品牌新品盈利率只有3.92%,全市场可识别盈利率也只有28.47%;而新品牌新品亏损率高达96.97%,老品牌新品亏损率也有77.78%,说明新发产品大多在亏钱抢量,属于高风险市场。
Some categories may not originally require certain certificates for entry; however, some products may target specific features (e.g. Bluetooth) or customers (e.g. children), and additional certificates may be required in the target marketplace (e.g. FCC, CPC).
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这不是一个适合进入的市场:新品盈利率只有3.92%,整体可识别盈利率也只有28.47%,而且新品牌新品亏损率高达96.97%。 现在市场更像是被旧品牌和强品牌压着打的价格战区,新品牌要么亏钱,要么靠重投入和强品牌力硬冲;小商家几乎没有稳定胜算。
这个市场不适合进入,结论很明确:已经接近价格战和饱和区,新品牌成功率太低。 关键信号很一致:新品利润里<10%的占比很高,而真正能做到15%以上的新品只出现在少数老牌或大牌手里;新品牌要想活下来,几乎得靠重营销、强品牌或额外创新投入,不是普通小卖家能轻松复制的路径。
证据上看,市场被老牌和大牌主导,新品牌并没有形成可复制的健康样本。 这类市场样本里,整体可见利润率分布中,低于10%的产品很多,20%以上的只占很少一部分;新品里可见的盈利产品只有少数,例如 Comotomo 的 B0GCDZLCS8,售价 13.42 美元,利润率 15.9%,最近月销 100 件,月利润 213.25 美元,但它对应的是 4256.38 美元的早期投入,而且 Comotomo 作为新入场品牌,7个产品里只有1个盈利,成功率只有 14.29%。反过来看,失败样本非常多:Comotomo 的 B0GCFL14GN、B0GCFGZM1M、B0GCDZXKMW、B0GDH1KZRM 都是负利润;Cathill 的 B0GRV8P1D6、B0GRVMR7RZ 也是亏损;这说明新品牌并没有稳定的利润模型。更关键的是,老品牌占据新品中的比例很高,而老品牌新品的非盈利率高达 77.78%,说明这个赛道不是“谁进来都能赚”,而是“老牌也在打价格和流量硬仗”。
对两类卖家都不友好:大品牌要重投, 小商家更难。 以用户预算 50 万元人民币来看,表面上能覆盖单个ASIN前期成本,但这类市场真正的门槛不只是首批备货和投放,还包括长期品牌、研发和认证成本;而高利润产品的样本几乎都不是低投入轻打法。大品牌可跟进的标杆是 Dr. Brown's、Lansinoh、MAM、Philips Avent 这些老牌,它们在高销量产品上能维持 10%~18% 的利润率,例如 B015XBYDLM 月销 20000 件、利润率 15.42%,B0DXMW74JG 利润率 18.23%,但这类位置明显是品牌战,不是空位。小商家若想进场,唯一能参考的“真正常规成功”样本几乎没有:你给到的数据里,新品牌里没有出现一批 <300 reviews/年的稳定盈利群体,反而是利润为负的新品很多,且要靠较强投放才能撑起销量。结论很短:不要进。 如果一定要做,只适合有强品牌、强研发、强投放能力的大品牌;普通小商家不应进入。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
B015XBYDLM | Dr. Brown's | 2015-09-28 | Yes | $10.99 | 20000pcs | $219800.0 | 15.42% | $33893.16 | |
![]() | B015XBYDD0 | Dr. Brown's | 2015-09-28 | Yes | $10.99 | 10000pcs | $109900.0 | 14.79% | $16254.21 |
![]() | B015XBYL4Q | Dr. Brown's | 2015-09-28 | Yes | $10.99 | 10000pcs | $109900.0 | 14.17% | $15572.83 |
![]() | B015XBYDE4 | Dr. Brown's | 2015-09-28 | Yes | $10.99 | 10000pcs | $109900.0 | 14.07% | $15462.93 |
![]() | B0DXMW74JG | Lansinoh | 2025-02-18 | Yes | $11.91 | 6000pcs | $71460.0 | 18.23% | $13027.16 |
![]() | B0DT4TYNWZ | Lansinoh | 2025-01-15 | Yes | $11.98 | 6000pcs | $71880.0 | 18.11% | $13017.47 |
![]() | B07N9BHHDF | Philips Avent | 2019-01-31 | Yes | $12.86 | 4000pcs | $51440.0 | 18.84% | $9691.3 |
![]() | B0DT4VL9P8 | Lansinoh | 2025-01-15 | Yes | $11.47 | 4000pcs | $45880.0 | 16.99% | $7795.02 |
B0DT4V1CWZ | Lansinoh | 2025-01-15 | Yes | $11.99 | 3000pcs | $35970.0 | 18.17% | $6535.75 | |
![]() | B0BSYH19KS | MAM | 2022-09-30 | Yes | $11.39 | 3000pcs | $34170.0 | 15.13% | $5169.93 |
![]() | B0BSYGVZHL | MAM | 2023-01-24 | Yes | $11.23 | 3000pcs | $33690.0 | 14.26% | $4804.2 |
![]() | B0BSYL3T5Q | MAM | 2023-01-24 | Yes | $10.89 | 2000pcs | $21780.0 | 13.22% | $2879.32 |
![]() | B0BSYFM1H4 | MAM | 2022-10-13 | Yes | $10.18 | 2000pcs | $20360.0 | 13.19% | $2685.49 |
![]() | B09JYMBV5P | Tommee Tippee | 2021-10-26 | Yes | $11.85 | 2000pcs | $23700.0 | 10.2% | $2417.4 |
![]() | B0BSYKV2K7 | MAM | 2025-06-03 | Yes | $11.39 | 1000pcs | $11390.0 | 14.31% | $1629.91 |
![]() | B0DC1RC9TG | Lansinoh | 2024-08-07 | Yes | $10.78 | 1000pcs | $10780.0 | 13.23% | $1426.2 |
![]() | B0D35Y11WN | NANOBÉBÉ | 2024-05-02 | Yes | $11.99 | 600pcs | $7194.0 | 14.58% | $1048.89 |
![]() | B0D35WRC1V | NANOBÉBÉ | 2024-05-02 | Yes | $11.99 | 400pcs | $4796.0 | 15.68% | $752.02 |
![]() | B09JZ3DCWJ | Tommee Tippee | 2021-10-26 | Yes | $12.19 | 500pcs | $6095.0 | 11.9% | $725.31 |
![]() | B0CWS5G8PP | MAM | 2024-02-29 | Yes | $10.89 | 500pcs | $5445.0 | 12.08% | $657.76 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0GCDZLCS8 | Comotomo | 2025-12-12 | Yes | $13.42 | 100pcs | $1342.0 | 15.89% | $213.25 |
![]() | B0GCZ4KQ1S | joyfeed | 2025-12-09 | Yes | $11.59 | 50pcs | $579.5 | 13.21% | $76.56 |
这个市场不值得进入,已经明显进入价格战/高竞争区,且对新品牌极不友好。 新产品整体盈利率只有3.92%,而新品利润率分布里负利润与低于10%的区间占绝对多数;更关键的是,近一年新品里几乎全是失败样本,新品牌想靠正常打法成功的概率非常低。
证据很直接:新品成功率只有3.92%,失败率96.97%;新品牌新品盈利率仅3.03%,而新品牌新品非盈利率高达96.97%。 近12个月里,市场新增新品主要集中在2025年后半到2026年,数量持续增加,但盈利几乎没跟上:2025年12月有1个新品盈利、12个新品失败;2026年2月到6月连续出现大批失败,像 Cathill、Dr. Brown's、Boon、Honeykin 这类新进场或新发新品品牌都在亏。整体来看,这不是“机会在扩大”,而是竞争在加剧、成功在收缩。同时,市场里真正能盈利的多是老牌强势产品,例如 MAM 的 B0BSYL3T5Q、Lansinoh 的 B0DT4TYNWZ/B0DXMW74JG,说明成功更依赖品牌势能和老链接基础,不是新人容易复制的赛道。
小商家现实更差:没有看到稳定、可复制的低评论真成功样本。 唯一比较像新进入者成功案例的是 Comotomo 的 B0GCDZLCS8,利润率15.89%,月销约100件、月营收13,420美元,定价13.42美元,但它靠的是“差异化功能+差异化外观+老品延伸”组合,不是低成本通用款;而且 Comotomo 自身7个产品里只有1个盈利,品牌成功率只有14.29%。这类案例更像“有品牌、会做产品、愿意砸研发和设计”的新大品牌,不是普通小商家。相反,Cathill 的通用款 B0GRVFQ62Q、Dr. Brown's 的 B0GWF9LN54 都因为同质化和低利润被淘汰,说明如果没有明显差异化或品牌力,进入后很容易被挤死。按你给的预算,500000 CNY 虽然足够启动单个ASIN,但在这个市场里钱只能买到入场,买不到胜率。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不值得进入:2026年新品牌密集涌入,但几乎全部在亏,已经进入明显的价格战/饱和区。 近一年里,新品牌新上架产品只有1个真正赚钱,32个亏损,成功率只有3.03%;而2026年新增节奏还在加速,已经看到新品牌持续进场,但利润并没有同步改善,反而越来越差。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 2026 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/12 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |