
这个市场不值得进入,结论是直接放弃。 关键原因不是预算,而是已经进入价格战区:新发布产品里只有6.25%盈利,低于10%的高风险线;16个新发布里有14个亏损或不成立,且近期新进入并没有改善,反而更偏向失败,说明竞争在加剧。
证据很明确。 市场里真正跑出来的新品牌只有 Moonwater Elixirs,且它只靠1个新产品 B0FV2XJVCN 站住,利润率25.88%,月销约50件,月收入约853.50美元;但它的体量太小,不能代表普通新品牌可复制。另一个新品牌 Freshwaves 两个新品 B0G4SB5JYR、B0GSYGLCD2 全部失败,0%成功率。老品牌这边,Febreze、Muse Apothecary、Fresh Wave、The Laundress 仍在主导成功样本,但它们的新品成功更多来自品牌力、旧款延伸和功能微差异,不是小商家容易模仿的路线。更重要的是,市场里大量产品利润只有-22.44%到19.06%,多数样本低于10%,这就是典型的价格战环境;而且有些老品牌单品如 Febreze 的 B0BS4Y58ZQ、B0D4C94RKG 月销分别约1000和7000件,却仍是负利润,说明这不是“卖得动就能赚钱”的市场。
短结论:不要进。 对大品牌来说,虽然 500000 CNY 足以覆盖单个新品起步成本,但面对低利润、同质化和老品牌强压,仍然不划算;对小商家来说,现有成功样本太少,且可复制性弱,基本没有正常进入机会。若硬要做,只能走强差异化、强营销、甚至偏激进打法,但这不属于值得进入的市场。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
这不是一个适合进入的市场:利润空间被压到价格战区,新品牌成功率只有6.25%,而且新品牌两款新品里有一款亏损,另一款虽显示25.88%利润率但仍只卖50件/月,说明放量和稳定盈利都很弱。 你的50万预算远高于单个新品的起步预算,但预算充足不等于值得进场;在这个类目里,钱更多只会换来更贵的试错,而不是更高胜率。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入,结论是直接放弃。 现在能看到的新品里,只有1个新品牌 Moonwater Elixirs 走通了正向案例,而另一个新品牌 Freshwaves 两个新品都没跑通;同时市场整体可识别利润产品只有35.56%,新品盈利率只有6.25%,已经落在高风险区,明显不是适合新玩家硬闯的盘子。
这个市场不建议进入:新产品里可见利润结构偏低,已经接近价格战区,而且真正能赚钱的新入场几乎都不是普通小卖家能复制的路径。对大品牌来说可以硬砸预算做差异化,但对小品牌来说,若不靠强营销或强创新,胜率很低。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B01M07RTKT | Fresh Wave | 2013-08-11 | Yes | $19.84 | 2000pcs | $39680.0 | 20.29% | $8051.08 |
![]() | B0DGS26XTW | The Laundress | 2024-09-11 | Yes | $18.93 | 1000pcs | $18930.0 | 25.51% | $4829.05 |
![]() | B07QCVXQYL | Fresh Wave | 2020-08-14 | Yes | $19.99 | 500pcs | $9995.0 | 22.26% | $2224.89 |
![]() | B07Q62MLYT | Fresh Wave | 2017-10-11 | Yes | $12.99 | 900pcs | $11691.0 | 18.95% | $2215.45 |
![]() | B0DB3CDHXM | Muse Apothecary | 2021-12-16 | Yes | $18.98 | 200pcs | $3796.0 | 17.68% | $671.14 |
![]() | B0CXR621ZW | Muse Apothecary | 2023-04-28 | Yes | $14.98 | 200pcs | $2996.0 | 21.92% | $656.73 |
![]() | B096ZH6QJ1 | Aromafume | 2019-09-22 | Yes | $18.98 | 100pcs | $1898.0 | 30.46% | $578.14 |
![]() | B07FGGC8G1 | Fresh Wave | 2018-06-20 | Yes | $11.92 | 300pcs | $3576.0 | 15.36% | $549.28 |
![]() | B01M9DP25F | TreeActiv | 2016-10-20 | Yes | $14.95 | 100pcs | $1495.0 | 24.6% | $367.77 |
![]() | B07Y6KNVT3 | Aromafume | 2019-09-21 | Yes | $18.99 | 50pcs | $949.5 | 30.65% | $291.03 |
![]() | B0FV2XJVCN | Moonwater Elixirs | 2025-10-07 | Yes | $17.07 | 50pcs | $853.5 | 25.88% | $220.89 |
![]() | B0016PS3I4 | Fresh Wave | 2011-03-24 | Yes | $16.31 | 50pcs | $815.5 | 21.57% | $175.91 |
![]() | B09NQS8MTS | Muse Apothecary | 2021-12-16 | Yes | $15.98 | 50pcs | $799.0 | 19.6% | $156.61 |
![]() | B0855F1FRD | Muse Apothecary | 2020-04-09 | Yes | $14.98 | 50pcs | $749.0 | 19.96% | $149.51 |
![]() | B0F2JMLMFM | Muse Apothecary | 2023-09-29 | Yes | $14.98 | 50pcs | $749.0 | 19.16% | $143.51 |
![]() | B091G6N2WK | Soul Sticks | 2021-05-13 | Yes | $12.82 | 50pcs | $641.0 | 20.51% | $131.47 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0FV2XJVCN | Moonwater Elixirs | 2025-10-07 | Yes | $17.07 | 50pcs | $853.5 | 25.88% | $220.89 |
这不是一个适合进入的市场:新品牌成功率只有6.25%,低于10%的高风险线;14个新上架样本里有13个失败,失败率93.33%,而且成功主要被老品牌和少数成熟品牌拿走。 这说明这里已经是明显的价格竞争区,想靠普通新品切入,胜率很低,尤其不适合中小卖家冒进。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不适合进入:新品牌成功率只有33.33%,但失败率高达66.67%,而且整体新产品里只有6.67%是真正跑出来的,93.33%都没过线,已经是明显的高风险市场。 2025年之后新品牌进入明显增多,但盈利结果没有同步改善,反而是失败样本占主导,说明竞争正在变硬,且不是靠普通新品就能赢。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |