
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入。 现在不是“还有机会”的阶段,而是已经被大牌和强新品牌反复验证过的拥挤赛道;新品牌新品成功率只有33.33%,但失败占66.67%,而且最近进入的新品里多数还是不赚钱,说明竞争正在继续变硬,不是在变软。
证据也很直接。 市场里总共有15个新品牌,但真正赚钱的新品牌新品只来自6个品牌,赚钱样本集中在 JUMISO、KLOSE FRNDS、PLANTIFIQUE、numbuzin、ma:nyo、INFINITY ZONE 这几个名字;其中 JUMISO 的 B0FM23ZR4H 虽然能做到31.75%利润率、月销3000、月收入约597.3万日元(折算数据口径),但它的对手已经非常强,像 CeraVe 的 B07VWSN95S 和 B07XJ7XWLW 都是33.04%~35.05%利润率、月收入分别约5547万和4086万,属于典型的大牌强势占位。真正能算“小品牌成功案例”的只有 KLOSE FRNDS 的 B0G6Q5SS9K,利润率37.66%,月销800,但它的新品预算已经到11677.03美元;而 AXWELL 的 B0G3QW65TK 直接失败,0销量、0利润,说明普通新卖家即使有接近2800美元定价,也未必能跑出来。市场总利润上看,全部可判断产品里盈利占44.34%,新品里盈利占30.77%,并不是极端低利润,但已经明显不是轻松市场,尤其是同质化烟酰胺精华这条线,很多失败样品都因为“缺乏独特性 + 竞争过强”。
给你的判断只有一个:不要进。 大品牌如果硬要进,必须接受高预算和强品牌打法,直接对标 CeraVe、SKIN1004、ma:nyo、SUNGBOON EDITOR 这种已经有成功新品的品牌;小品牌如果没有明显配方突破、包装差异、渠道优势,基本就是去碰价格战和流量战,而且还要面对 200+ 评论级别的强竞争对手。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入。 用户预算 500,000 CNY 只能覆盖少数可验证新品的前期打样、备货和投放,但当前市场已经呈现出明显的品牌挤压和价格竞争特征:新品牌新品成功率只有 33.33%,失败率高达 61.11%,而老品牌新品成功率只有 25.00%;同时,样本里已有多款新品利润率在 31.75%~37.66% 之间,但这并不代表容易复制,因为赚钱产品主要集中在品牌力更强的老牌和少数新品牌身上,普通新进入者很难稳定拿到结果。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场我不建议进入:已经明显拥挤,而且新品牌并不占优。 现在看到的新品牌里,赚钱的只有少数,且失败新品更多;如果你想进场,必须走高预算、强品牌、强内容打法,普通小卖家不适合硬冲。
这个市场不适合进入,尤其不适合小品牌;它已经接近/进入价格战区,且新品牌成功率不够高。 现有数据里,全部可判断利润的产品中只有44.34%盈利,新上架产品里盈利率只有30.77%,虽然还没到你定义的“<10%极高风险”那种最坏状态,但新产品利润分布明显集中在20%~40%,而且0%~10%几乎没有空间,说明想靠普通同质化打法切入会很难。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B0D8W1YVBX | EQQUALBERRY | 2024-07-05 | Yes | $20.11 | 40000pcs | $804400.0 | 33.69% | $271002.36 |
B07VWSN95S | CeraVe | 2019-08-14 | Yes | $18.49 | 30000pcs | $554700.0 | 33.04% | $183272.88 | |
B07XJ7XWLW | CeraVe | 2019-09-09 | Yes | $20.43 | 20000pcs | $408600.0 | 35.05% | $143214.3 | |
B0CRDQPLCM | SUNGBOON EDITOR | 2024-01-05 | Yes | $23.53 | 10000pcs | $235300.0 | 35.37% | $83225.61 | |
B0DGLCRZZ3 | Dr.Althea | 2024-09-10 | Yes | $22.62 | 9000pcs | $203580.0 | 33.8% | $68810.04 | |
![]() | B0D54G6811 | ANUA | 2024-06-20 | Yes | $20.77 | 7000pcs | $145390.0 | 32.98% | $47949.63 |
![]() | B07WSS5M4Z | Naturium | 2019-08-20 | Yes | $15.17 | 8000pcs | $121360.0 | 26.45% | $32099.72 |
![]() | B091238V7N | AXIS-Y | 2021-10-08 | Yes | $14.73 | 7000pcs | $103110.0 | 25.8% | $26602.38 |
![]() | B07QFHZZZL | The Ordinary | 2019-06-01 | Yes | $25.1 | 3000pcs | $75300.0 | 32.2% | $24246.6 |
![]() | B09ZYB8S31 | COSRX | 2022-05-10 | Yes | $19.02 | 4000pcs | $76080.0 | 29.42% | $22382.74 |
![]() | B0FM23ZR4H | JUMISO | 2025-08-12 | Yes | $19.91 | 3000pcs | $59730.0 | 31.75% | $18964.28 |
![]() | B0BT7KY271 | ANUA | 2023-01-27 | Yes | $19.48 | 3000pcs | $58440.0 | 29.29% | $17117.08 |
![]() | B09TLFY4GP | SKIN1004 | 2021-10-04 | Yes | $13.09 | 7000pcs | $91630.0 | 15.5% | $14202.65 |
![]() | B0GGH9DCKK | ma:nyo | 2026-01-13 | Yes | $19.17 | 2000pcs | $38340.0 | 30.71% | $11774.22 |
B0B2KM4MKQ | Naturium | 2022-05-27 | Yes | $27.99 | 1000pcs | $27990.0 | 38.73% | $10840.53 | |
![]() | B0DPMYJ1CQ | KraveBeauty | 2024-12-05 | Yes | $27.58 | 1000pcs | $27580.0 | 36.93% | $10185.3 |
![]() | B07YGQ2BHH | Bliss | 2019-09-27 | Yes | $27.72 | 1000pcs | $27720.0 | 35.73% | $9904.36 |
![]() | B0G6Q5SS9K | KLOSE FRNDS | 2025-12-12 | Yes | $31.51 | 800pcs | $25208.0 | 37.66% | $9493.34 |
![]() | B0DCXD1L41 | Glo Melanin | 2024-08-12 | Yes | $24.99 | 800pcs | $19992.0 | 35.17% | $7031.19 |
![]() | B0G43T34M9 | Good Molecules | 2022-11-30 | Yes | $23.94 | 700pcs | $16758.0 | 32.43% | $5434.62 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0FM23ZR4H | JUMISO | 2025-08-12 | Yes | $19.91 | 3000pcs | $59730.0 | 31.75% | $18964.28 |
![]() | B0GGH9DCKK | ma:nyo | 2026-01-13 | Yes | $19.17 | 2000pcs | $38340.0 | 30.71% | $11774.22 |
![]() | B0G6Q5SS9K | KLOSE FRNDS | 2025-12-12 | Yes | $31.51 | 800pcs | $25208.0 | 37.66% | $9493.34 |
![]() | B0FN4JJB38 | PLANTIFIQUE | 2026-05-20 | Yes | $21.72 | 200pcs | $4344.0 | 33.21% | $1442.65 |
![]() | B0FDXXJT66 | SKIN1004 | 2025-08-13 | Yes | $12.46 | 500pcs | $6230.0 | 20.6% | $1283.38 |
![]() | B0GYZ36NFP | numbuzin | 2026-04-29 | Yes | $21.38 | 100pcs | $2138.0 | 27.84% | $595.22 |
![]() | B0GMWQYL4V | SUNGBOON EDITOR | 2026-02-23 | Yes | $24.98 | 50pcs | $1249.0 | 33.5% | $418.42 |
![]() | B0GG5R3DF2 | INFINITY ZONE | 2026-01-10 | Yes | $9.99 | 300pcs | $2997.0 | 13.42% | $402.2 |
这个市场不适合进入:新品成功率只有30.77%,失败率64.71%,而且成功主要被少数大牌和强新品牌拿走,竞争已经很硬。 你要面对的不是“还有空位”的市场,而是一个已经被 CeraVe、SKIN1004、SUNGBOON EDITOR、JUMISO、ma:nyo、numbuzin 这些品牌反复验证过的高门槛赛道;对新玩家来说,低成本试错的空间很小。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不适合现在进入,结论是直接放弃。 近一年新品牌里只有6个真正赚钱的新产品,而亏损新产品有11个,成功率只有35.29%;同时最近几个月新品牌持续有新品进入,但多数落在不赚钱区间,说明竞争正在变硬,不是变轻。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |