
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,已经是明显的价格战区,而且新品牌几乎没有可复制的成功样本。 用户预算50万CNY表面上足够启动单个ASIN,但在这里只能买到前期入场,买不到长期胜率;对大品牌和小商家都不是好机会。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很明确:不建议进入,这个市场已经接近价格战区,而且对新品牌极不友好。 你的预算 50万CNY 只能覆盖少数单品的前期启动成本,但市场里新品牌新上架产品的盈利率是 0%,整体成功率也只有 16.13%,新上架产品里没有任何一个达到可验证盈利,说明现在进去大概率先烧钱。
Some categories may not originally require certain certificates for entry; however, some products may target specific features (e.g. Bluetooth) or customers (e.g. children), and additional certificates may be required in the target marketplace (e.g. FCC, CPC).
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入:已经处在高竞争、低利润的价格战区,新品牌几乎全军覆没。 依据样本,新品牌新上架的盈利率为0%,新品牌新上架的亏损率是100%;老品牌新上架的盈利率也为0%,说明不是“谁更会做”而是市场本身把新货都压成了亏损。
这个市场不适合现在进入:新品牌几乎没有真正跑通,且新发布产品的可盈利率是0%,新产品利润区间只有-3.11%到14.57%,已经进入明显的低利润竞争区。 对大品牌和小商家都不是好市场;大品牌虽然还能靠资金和品牌力硬推,但也只是高投入、高风险,不是高确定性机会。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B000RMZSYE | Melissa & Doug | 2011-03-24 | Yes | $20.98 | 400pcs | $8392.0 | 24.54% | $2059.4 |
B0CL6FGT71 | TALGIC | 2023-10-17 | Yes | $24.99 | 100pcs | $2499.0 | 20.52% | $512.8 | |
![]() | B0CB3C5475 | MoinKidz | 2023-08-15 | Yes | $14.99 | 100pcs | $1499.0 | 16.53% | $247.79 |
![]() | B08S71XLZ1 | Ravensburger | 2021-01-06 | Yes | $16.99 | 100pcs | $1699.0 | 13.86% | $235.49 |
![]() | B000REP3CO | Melissa & Doug | 2011-03-24 | Yes | $16.66 | 50pcs | $833.0 | 17.87% | $148.86 |
![]() | B0CGZ5KMHW | LilyBeauty | 2023-08-31 | Yes | $16.99 | 50pcs | $849.5 | 17.24% | $146.46 |
![]() | B0DF6GZ279 | HT HONOR . TRUST | 2024-08-16 | Yes | $19.72 | 50pcs | $986.0 | 14.13% | $139.33 |
![]() | B0D2CSQKCF | DQRRZ | 2024-04-22 | Yes | $10.12 | 100pcs | $1012.0 | 10.04% | $101.61 |
![]() | B0D9QFFTHM | Faburo | 2024-07-19 | Yes | $12.62 | 50pcs | $631.0 | 14.29% | $90.17 |
![]() | B0C4Y863D8 | MoinKidz | 2023-05-11 | Yes | $12.99 | 50pcs | $649.5 | 13.28% | $86.26 |
New products with negative profitability ranked by lowest profit value. Only includes newly released products classified as non-profitable.
![]() | B0GSRVL264 | PLHMTR | 2026-03-16 | No | $8.51 | 200pcs | $1702.0 | -2.39% | $-40.67 |
![]() | B0GHMRNK3Z | DQRRZ | 2026-01-19 | No | $9.75 | 50pcs | $487.5 | 3.94% | $19.21 |
B0GK8WR96K | VOMYOZB | 2026-01-28 | No | $9.98 | 50pcs | $499.0 | 3.87% | $19.32 | |
![]() | B0GK8DCT62 | VOMYOZB | 2026-01-28 | No | $9.93 | 50pcs | $496.5 | 4.36% | $21.65 |
![]() | B0G1YD2JGL | Nexority | 2025-11-12 | No | $9.74 | 50pcs | $487.0 | 6.38% | $31.08 |
![]() | B0GG4FDPB6 | Wumngo | 2026-02-28 | No | $15.6 | -pcs | $- | 15.18% | $- |
![]() | B0GDXS232W | Ocirose | 2026-01-04 | No | $16.03 | -pcs | $- | -7.0% | $- |
![]() | B0GH49XGQ9 | - | 2026-01-16 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0H6B2FBQ5 | VIJYYZT | 2026-06-22 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0G657SXJ9 | Nexority | 2025-12-10 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0GS1FNB92 | VOMYOZB | 2026-03-10 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0GSRWG7RG | PLHMTR | 2026-03-16 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
这个市场不适合进入:新产品成功率为0%,而且近期新增的可识别新产品全部不盈利,已经是明显的价格战/高竞争市场。 用户预算50万人民币虽然能覆盖单个ASIN的早期投入,但在这里并不能换来可复制的成功,因为真正跑出来的样本几乎都依赖老品牌势能,普通新品牌很难正向兑现。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不适合进入,已经进入明显的价格战/饱和区。 近期开新品牌在持续增加,但新品牌的成功率几乎为零;同时新入场产品大多落在低利润或无利润区间,说明不是“做得不够好”,而是“市场本身太挤”。
证据很直接:2025年开始到2026年,新品牌持续涌入,但几乎全部失败。 时间趋势里,2025年只有 Nexority 出现了2个新产品且都不赚钱;2026年又出现 Ocirose、VIJYYZT、Wumngo、PLHMTR、VOMYOZB、DQRRZ、HT HONOR . TRUST、Melissa & Doug 等一批品牌的新发布,其中可识别的样本里,2026年新发布产品的盈利表现是 1 个落在 -10%~0%,3 个落在 0%~10%,只有 8 个被归为暂未确认/其他,没有任何清晰的高利润新入场案例。按品牌看,Nexority 的2个新产品全部不盈利,成功率 0%;而新品牌整体的新发布盈利率也是 0%。这已经不是普通竞争,而是新品牌几乎无法靠常规打法跑出来。在利润结构上,市场被判定为“高价格竞争”,新产品利润率区间下限甚至到 -311% 到 14.57%,说明低利润甚至亏损非常常见,且多数新货没有明显利润空间。
对大品牌和小商家的结论都一样:都不建议进。 大品牌要想切入,必须能承担更强的品牌砸量、研发和认证成本,但当前样本里真正赚钱的“新产品”大多来自老牌/强品牌路径,像 Melissa & Doug、Ravensburger、MoinKidz、DQRRZ、HT HONOR . TRUST 这类品牌的成功样本,核心都是“老款基础上做差异化”,不是低成本新品牌能轻松复制;而小商家要找的“真实成功案例”几乎没有,反而看到的是大量外观和功能都很接近的通用木质拼图,B0G1YD2JGL(Nexority,9.74美元)和 B0GSRVL264(PLHMTR,8.51美元)都失败,B0G657SXJ9(Nexority)也失败。市场里没有出现能代表小商家稳定成功的低评论、低预算样本,反而有明显的营销碾压和高门槛信号。你的预算 500000 CNY 只能覆盖单个ASIN前期投入,但在这个市场里,单靠这笔钱并不能解决品牌心智、差异化和长期投放问题。结论:不要进入。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |