
这个市场不值得进入,已经明显进入价格战高风险区,而且正在变得更难。 目前新品牌只有16个,没到30个以上的绝对过度拥挤线,但新上架43个里只有23.26%能赚钱,31个亏损,占75.61%;最近2026年的新上架几乎全落在“暂未成功”区间,说明后进者越来越难活,市场竞争是在加剧,不是在变好。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
这不是一个值得进入的市场:新品牌新款成功率只有23.26%,而新品牌新款不成功率高达58.33%;再加上市场里旧品牌新款占比44.18%,说明竞争已经被老玩家强势占位。 你的50万人民币预算表面上够进场,但按当前可验证的新款推荐投入中位数约2259.31美元(约1.63万人民币)看,资金只够覆盖单个ASIN前期起步,不足以支撑R&D、品牌和认证;更重要的是,这个市场不是“靠便宜就能活”的市场,已经出现明显的价格与投放挤压。
Some categories may not originally require certain certificates for entry; however, some products may target specific features (e.g. Bluetooth) or customers (e.g. children), and additional certificates may be required in the target marketplace (e.g. FCC, CPC).
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不适合进入,结论很明确:已进入价格战区,且新品牌成功率只有23.26%,新品牌失败率高达58.33%,属于高风险市场。 头部老品牌仍在持续压制,新品牌里能活下来的案例很少;对小商家来说,不是“能不能做”,而是“几乎不值得做”,因为一旦没有明显差异化,基本会直接被更大资金和品牌力挤出去。
证据很直接:市场整体可盈利产品占46.96%,但新上架产品只有23.26%能盈利,说明新品进入后大概率会失败;新品牌新上架盈利率33.33%,但非盈利率58.33%,而老品牌新上架非盈利率更高到89.47%,说明这个赛道不是靠随便上新就能赢,而是高度依赖品牌力、老链接和持续投放。 另外,样本里小商家真成功案例非常少,且大多不是“普通同质化产品”赢的:CAMSTRO 的 B0FH6NNC2V,售价17.51美元,初期预算2,259.31元,毛利17.29%,卖点是3K、双频WiFi、360°云台、AI侦测、无月费本地存储;AishangTaoGou 的 B0FNXDMCWB,19.99美元,靠窗贴式安装这个独特点取胜;PATTERSON 的 B0G3PP8JJF,29.97美元,靠USB插头式隐蔽形态和离线录像做差异化。反面例子也很清楚:Lizhonto 的 B0GGYMDTTP,36.35美元但没跑出销量;CAMSTRO 的 B0GWZLVY3X 也是失败;Tapo 的 B0DC26YJV3 已经出现-5.39%利润率,B0FKXDX9W5 也失败,说明这个市场里“功能像样但不够独特”的产品会迅速掉进低利润或亏损。
如果一定要抄作业,只能抄这两类:老品牌路线学 Tapo / WYZE / owltron 的品牌背书+成熟基础款,但这对小商家不可复制;小商家路线只学 CAMSTRO B0FH6NNC2V、AishangTaoGou B0FNXDMCWB、PATTERSON B0G3PP8JJF 这类“明确差异化 + 低价 + 功能聚焦”的单品。 你的预算50万元人民币远高于当前可见单品入场预算(推荐预算约2,259元),但这不代表安全,因为真正的门槛不是首发资金,而是后续品牌、研发和持续投放;如果你不是大品牌,不要进。
这个市场不适合现在进入,已经接近/进入过度拥挤状态,利润虽然还没全面崩盘,但新品牌要想稳定赚钱,门槛明显偏高。 目前新品可识别的盈利率只有23.26%,而新品牌新品盈利率只有33.33%,表面上看还行,但新品牌新品亏损率更高,达到58.33%;同时,2025到2026年新品发布明显增多,2026年新发布里非盈利新品19个、盈利新品只有2个,说明后续竞争在快速加剧。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
B0CJ9YX7DG | WYZE | 2024-03-26 | Yes | $36.11 | 9000pcs | $324990.0 | 39.52% | $128436.05 | |
![]() | B0CJWJ8RYR | WYZE | 2024-04-26 | Yes | $34.96 | 5000pcs | $174800.0 | 39.19% | $68504.12 |
B0DKLSM8JB | Tapo | 2024-11-07 | Yes | $33.33 | 4000pcs | $133320.0 | 36.23% | $48301.84 | |
B0CH45HPZT | Tapo | 2023-09-01 | Yes | $33.42 | 4000pcs | $133680.0 | 35.18% | $47028.63 | |
![]() | B0DBPBSYMQ | Tapo | 2024-08-12 | Yes | $17.83 | 9000pcs | $160470.0 | 22.88% | $36715.54 |
![]() | B08GHX9G5L | Tapo | 2020-09-15 | Yes | $23.37 | 6000pcs | $140220.0 | 24.36% | $34157.6 |
![]() | B08ZXJJTYJ | Kasa Smart | 2021-04-03 | Yes | $31.48 | 2000pcs | $62960.0 | 30.06% | $18925.78 |
B0BXMSS8Z7 | Kasa Smart | 2023-02-09 | Yes | $23.26 | 3000pcs | $69780.0 | 24.09% | $16810.01 | |
![]() | B0CJ9Z22L5 | WYZE | 2024-03-26 | Yes | $35.95 | 1000pcs | $35950.0 | 39.46% | $14185.87 |
B0829KDY9X | - | 2019-12-06 | Yes | $18.96 | 3000pcs | $56880.0 | 17.33% | $9857.31 | |
B0F1TGSYJ6 | GNCC | 2025-05-07 | Yes | $13.56 | 3000pcs | $40680.0 | 18.9% | $7688.52 | |
![]() | B0BRKJ3323 | litokam | 2023-01-03 | Yes | $33.65 | 500pcs | $16825.0 | 34.85% | $5863.52 |
B0CWD7D41R | Tapo | 2024-02-27 | Yes | $31.61 | 500pcs | $15805.0 | 28.86% | $4561.33 | |
![]() | B0DNZNHFDR | GUOANVISION | 2024-11-28 | Yes | $27.31 | 500pcs | $13655.0 | 32.69% | $4463.82 |
![]() | B0FVKQX5XT | VSMAHOME | 2025-10-10 | Yes | $28.4 | 500pcs | $14200.0 | 30.63% | $4349.46 |
B09CKQ7KW1 | litokam | 2022-03-15 | Yes | $23.44 | 500pcs | $11720.0 | 31.07% | $3641.41 | |
B08GH9KL4M | Kasa Smart | 2020-09-19 | Yes | $22.14 | 500pcs | $11070.0 | 27.05% | $2994.44 | |
![]() | B09CH4L7M4 | litokam | 2021-08-12 | Yes | $22.34 | 500pcs | $11170.0 | 26.45% | $2954.47 |
![]() | B0CHYGG2TP | litokam | 2023-09-13 | Yes | $21.1 | 500pcs | $10550.0 | 24.69% | $2604.8 |
![]() | B0FJ8MVFQS | CINMOORE | 2025-07-21 | Yes | $24.62 | 300pcs | $7386.0 | 30.28% | $2236.49 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0FVKQX5XT | VSMAHOME | 2025-10-10 | Yes | $28.4 | 500pcs | $14200.0 | 30.63% | $4349.46 |
![]() | B0GJZ6N81J | owltron | 2026-02-01 | Yes | $28.32 | 200pcs | $5664.0 | 31.4% | $1778.5 |
![]() | B0G3PP8JJF | PATTERSON | 2025-11-24 | Yes | $29.97 | 100pcs | $2997.0 | 36.36% | $1089.71 |
![]() | B0FXWXCCNN | CYVIO | 2025-10-27 | Yes | $31.48 | 100pcs | $3148.0 | 33.12% | $1042.62 |
![]() | B0FXWKGBCF | vebiliki | 2025-10-27 | Yes | $25.42 | 100pcs | $2542.0 | 34.24% | $870.39 |
![]() | B0FNXDMCWB | AishangTaoGou | 2025-08-27 | Yes | $19.99 | 100pcs | $1999.0 | 28.77% | $575.12 |
![]() | B0GLPW77GG | Armorcope | 2026-02-05 | Yes | $19.51 | 100pcs | $1951.0 | 24.15% | $471.17 |
![]() | B0GCZGM7Z9 | YYingYu | 2025-12-29 | Yes | $19.35 | 50pcs | $967.5 | 27.22% | $263.36 |
![]() | B0FH6NNC2V | CAMSTRO | 2025-08-13 | Yes | $17.51 | 75pcs | $1313.25 | 17.29% | $227.07 |
![]() | B0GC33WZWZ | FNCOCO | 2025-12-23 | Yes | $15.99 | 50pcs | $799.5 | 24.31% | $194.36 |
这个市场不值得进入,已经接近或进入过度拥挤状态。 新品成功率只有23.26%,但真正可复制的新品牌成功只出现在少数样本里;同时新品失败率高达63.64%,而现有老品牌新品成功率更低,只有10.53%,说明市场竞争已经非常硬,新人要想活下来,必须靠明显差异化和持续投放,不是普通铺货能赢的。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不值得进入,已经是明显的价格战高风险区。 近一年的新品牌新产品盈利率只有36.36%,但非盈利率高达63.64%;更关键的是,最近月份里新进入产品几乎清一色落在“暂未成功/不盈利”区间,说明竞争是在变难,不是在变容易。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |