
这个市场不值得进入,而且已经是明显的价格战市场:新品整体只有4.17%能跑出盈利,近乎95.24%的新产品都不赚钱;利润区间也已经压到-4.81%到12.36%,说明大多数新品连10%利润线都守不住。新品牌只有6个,远没到30~100+品牌的“品牌级过度拥挤”警报,但竞争已经足够狠到让新进入者很难活下来,结论依然是不要进。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
这个市场不适合进入,且已经接近/进入价格战区。 你只有50万 CNY,能覆盖部分新品前期投入,但以当前数据看,市场新品成功率只有4.17%,整体可盈利产品比例也只有25.29%,而新品利润区间下限甚至到-4.81%,说明不是“有钱就能赚”的市场,尤其对小商家非常危险。
Some categories may not originally require certain certificates for entry; however, some products may target specific features (e.g. Bluetooth) or customers (e.g. children), and additional certificates may be required in the target marketplace (e.g. FCC, CPC).
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入,结论是:对大品牌和小商家都不友好,已经进入价格战/过度拥挤状态。 目前能看到的信号很清楚:新品牌里只有极少数能跑出来,且不少新产品利润已经压到10%左右甚至更低;再加上头部品牌靠强资源硬推,普通卖家很难复制。
这个市场不值得进入:新品牌几乎没有真实盈利样本,且老品牌主导了新上架,典型是强品牌+价格压制市场。 现有数据看,低于10%利润的产品占比达到22.22%(全部市场)/25.00%(新产品已知利润样本),而新品牌新发布盈利率只有14.29%,但这只对应1个样本;更关键的是,老品牌新发布盈利率为0%,却占新产品样本的70.83%,说明新货大多是旧品牌在打仗,不是给小商家留下空间。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
B06XZ9K244 | magilano | 2016-08-10 | Yes | $19.49 | 10000pcs | $194900.0 | 33.34% | $64979.66 | |
B00TXI1NEW | Mattel Games | 2015-02-20 | Yes | $14.44 | 6000pcs | $86640.0 | 25.84% | $22387.78 | |
B0D2ZPJBWP | Taco Cat Goat Cheese Pizza | 2024-05-21 | Yes | $14.98 | 6000pcs | $89880.0 | 21.64% | $19450.04 | |
B07JQ5W878 | Regal Games | 2018-10-25 | Yes | $12.28 | 10000pcs | $122800.0 | 13.27% | $16295.57 | |
![]() | B00000IV34 | PlayMonster | 2020-06-16 | Yes | $12.99 | 3000pcs | $38970.0 | 18.24% | $7108.13 |
![]() | B09KKJMR4L | Exploding Kittens | 2021-11-10 | Yes | $12.56 | 1000pcs | $12560.0 | 16.65% | $2091.24 |
![]() | B0D51RQVT3 | Asmodee | 2024-06-21 | Yes | $14.99 | 600pcs | $8994.0 | 21.3% | $1915.73 |
![]() | B0DKL9SBGB | PlayMonster | 2024-10-22 | Yes | $18.86 | 400pcs | $7544.0 | 24.58% | $1854.32 |
![]() | B0B35C1GPD | THE BAMBINO TREE | 2022-06-03 | Yes | $16.08 | 500pcs | $8040.0 | 20.7% | $1664.28 |
![]() | B08JJ3FC57 | Cottify | 2021-01-10 | Yes | $15.03 | 300pcs | $4509.0 | 26.33% | $1187.22 |
![]() | B0FB599T1L | PlayMonster | 2025-05-28 | Yes | $15.91 | 200pcs | $3182.0 | 26.88% | $855.33 |
![]() | B0D1R23QQJ | gisgfim | 2024-04-15 | Yes | $13.65 | 300pcs | $4095.0 | 20.02% | $819.82 |
![]() | B0D51WW6GJ | Asmodee | 2024-10-04 | Yes | $10.99 | 600pcs | $6594.0 | 12.24% | $807.11 |
![]() | B0FGDHV413 | Quokka | 2025-07-02 | Yes | $13.45 | 200pcs | $2690.0 | 23.3% | $626.77 |
![]() | B0G1VL5471 | Zygomatic | 2025-12-05 | Yes | $10.99 | 500pcs | $5495.0 | 10.1% | $555.0 |
![]() | B094XZ45Q5 | SMART CARDS | 2021-08-21 | Yes | $9.99 | 300pcs | $2997.0 | 17.27% | $517.59 |
![]() | B0DNQPTTW3 | gisgfim | 2024-11-21 | Yes | $17.99 | 100pcs | $1799.0 | 25.11% | $451.73 |
![]() | B0B2835TZD | Urban Supply Co | 2022-05-28 | Yes | $16.99 | 100pcs | $1699.0 | 23.08% | $392.13 |
![]() | B0115V13QC | Grandpa Beck's Games | 2015-07-07 | Yes | $19.99 | 50pcs | $999.5 | 26.79% | $267.77 |
![]() | B0DJ4C296B | Dad Bomb Games | 2024-09-28 | Yes | $18.15 | 50pcs | $907.5 | 23.76% | $215.63 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0G1VL5471 | Zygomatic | 2025-12-05 | Yes | $10.99 | 500pcs | $5495.0 | 10.1% | $555.0 |
这个市场不值得进入,结论很明确:新品成功率只有4.17%,旧品牌新品成功率为0%,而且95.24%的新品都不盈利,已经是典型的价格战高风险市场。 这不是一个适合小品牌硬闯的赛道;大品牌也只能靠强品牌、IP或高投入去抢少数赢家,普通新卖家进入大概率会被利润和流量一起压垮。
证据很清楚:全市场可识别盈利产品仅25.29%,而新品里只有1个盈利、20个不盈利;新品牌新品里盈利率14.29%,但样本只有1个成功,不能代表可复制机会。更关键的是,旧品牌新品盈利率是0%,说明这个细分里老玩家的新品也在失败,市场不是“谁都能做”,而是“多数人都在亏”。从品牌看,Zygomatic是唯一的新品牌盈利案例,单个ASIN B0G1VL5471,售价10.99美元,预算4221.08美元,月收入54.95万;但同品牌另一个ASIN B0G1VHHKL6虽然评分4.8、53条评价,却仍然不盈利,说明这个市场对定价、包装和场景差异要求非常苛刻,不是靠好评就能稳赢。反面案例更强:Bicycle 的 B0G35MXBQW 直接是无销量的新品失败;老牌 PlayMonster、Asmodee、Exploding Kittens、Mattel Games 也有多款新品亏损,说明这里不是“老品牌稳赢”,而是连老品牌都在被竞争挤压。
如果硬要总结可行路径:大品牌只有在愿意投入明显高于3,196美元中位预算,甚至接近4,221美元上沿,并且做出功能差异/IP差异时,才有可能打出单品;小品牌则缺乏真正的低门槛成功样本。 目前没有看到<300评价的真实小品牌稳定成功案例,反而看到不少老品牌和强品牌新品亏损;这意味着小品牌若想进入,基本要靠非常激进的差异化和营销,但即便如此也没有足够证据证明能稳定成功。短结论:不要进入。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不该进,已经明显进入饱和和价格战区。 新品牌里真正算成功的只有 Zygomatic 的 1 个新品,成功率只有 14.29%,而新品牌新品总体盈利率只有 4.17%;同一时间有 6 个新品牌新品失败,且 2025 年到 2026 年的最新发布里,非盈利新品明显占主导,说明竞争不是在变容易,而是在变难。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2026 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |