
结论很明确:这个市场不适合进入,已经是明显的价格战市场。 新品牌成功率是0.00%,9个新上架产品里没有一个盈利;同时新品牌数量只有4个,但在这个细分类里已经出现了连续失败,说明不是“还有空间慢慢做”,而是“进来就先被低利润和同质化压住”。
证据非常直接。 新品牌样本里,Chiffonade 2个新产品全亏,Sudaporn 4个新产品全亏,Qivorimith 1个全亏,Povkufii 1个全亏;月度和年度趋势都一样,2025年到2026年新增的样本几乎清一色落在“非盈利”,没有任何新品牌盈利案例。利润区间也很差,新发布产品利润率范围是 -25.37% 到 2.59%,这意味着大多数产品不但没赚钱,连正常利润都没有;样本中多个品牌的产品还属于“功能和外观都很常规”的通用品,像 Chiffonade 的 B0FW47JRGR、B0FW4BDF5V,Sudaporn 的 B0GVZ7B584、B0GVZFGCVP、B0GVZNBJ6D、B0GX5P941C,都不是可复制的健康成功案例,而是典型失败样本。市场里真正能活下来的老品牌只有更早进入的 Mudder,B07V1L8C2V 月销300、月营收2223美元,但利润率仍是 -0.57%,连老品牌都被压到接近零利润,说明这里已经是严重内卷区。
对两类卖家都不友好。 大品牌如果硬进,虽然有资源去打投放和供应链,但要面对的是已经成型的低毛利和同质化竞争,且这类市场没有任何高利润护城河样本可借鉴;小商家更不行,因为没有一个真实的小品牌成功案例能作为标杆,反而更容易被价格战拖死。你现在的50万人民币预算,理论上能覆盖单个ASIN前期备货、物流和初期投放,但不足以补上研发、品牌和认证的长期成本;换句话说,预算够“开局”,不够“赢局”。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很明确:你现在不该进这个市场。 这个类目已经是价格战高风险区,且新品牌切入几乎没有成功样本;你虽有50万人民币预算,但对单个ASIN来说,这笔钱只能覆盖前期备货、物流和初期投放,远不足以对抗品牌、研发和长期投放成本。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不适合进入:新品和全市场的可识别利润率都是0.00%,新品牌新品成功率也是0.00%,而且近一年新进入者几乎全军覆没,已经是明显的价格战/过度拥挤市场。按当前数据看,不管大品牌还是小品牌,都没有“高成功概率”的入口,进场只会先烧钱。
这个市场不适合进入,属于明显的低利润价格战市场,且新品牌成功率为 0%,不应继续。 你当前预算 50万人民币看起来不低,但在这个品类里,钱并没有换来成功:新品牌发布的产品里,盈利率是 0%,而且已出现多个新品牌全部亏损的案例,说明这不是“少花钱慢慢做”就能赢的市场。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Products with negative profitability ranked by lowest profit value. Only includes products classified as non-profitable regardless of release date.
![]() | B07V1L8C2V | Mudder | 2019-07-08 | No | $7.41 | 300pcs | $2223.0 | -0.57% | $-12.67 |
![]() | B0D87NYMVL | IMUSGO | 2024-07-31 | No | $7.14 | 50pcs | $357.0 | -2.2% | $-7.85 |
![]() | B0DWPF9FZY | 5 CORE | 2025-02-10 | No | $5.52 | -pcs | $- | -26.64% | $- |
![]() | B0FW47JRGR | Chiffonade | 2025-10-14 | No | $5.99 | -pcs | $- | -8.55% | $- |
![]() | B0GVZFGCVP | Sudaporn | 2026-04-03 | No | $8.93 | -pcs | $- | 2.59% | $- |
![]() | B0G8HVB8G3 | Qivorimith | 2025-12-18 | No | $3.85 | -pcs | $- | -42.38% | $- |
![]() | B0FVFY59F4 | LinnWell | 2025-10-09 | No | $6.54 | -pcs | $- | -2.94% | $- |
![]() | B0FNMKCCDQ | Povkufii | 2025-08-25 | No | $6.27 | -pcs | $- | -16.1% | $- |
![]() | B0GVZ7B584 | Sudaporn | 2026-04-03 | No | $8.5 | -pcs | $- | 0.47% | $- |
![]() | B0DWPZPPJD | 5 CORE | 2025-02-10 | No | $5.5 | -pcs | $- | -27.09% | $- |
![]() | B0GVZNBJ6D | Sudaporn | 2026-04-03 | No | $8.68 | -pcs | $- | 1.38% | $- |
![]() | B0GTBZ15QW | 5 CORE | 2025-02-10 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0CS9M44KS | LinnWell | 2024-01-13 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0GX5P941C | Sudaporn | 2026-04-14 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0FW4BDF5V | Chiffonade | 2025-10-14 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
New products with negative profitability ranked by lowest profit value. Only includes newly released products classified as non-profitable.
![]() | B0FW47JRGR | Chiffonade | 2025-10-14 | No | $5.99 | -pcs | $- | -8.55% | $- |
![]() | B0GVZFGCVP | Sudaporn | 2026-04-03 | No | $8.93 | -pcs | $- | 2.59% | $- |
![]() | B0G8HVB8G3 | Qivorimith | 2025-12-18 | No | $3.85 | -pcs | $- | -42.38% | $- |
![]() | B0FVFY59F4 | LinnWell | 2025-10-09 | No | $6.54 | -pcs | $- | -2.94% | $- |
![]() | B0FNMKCCDQ | Povkufii | 2025-08-25 | No | $6.27 | -pcs | $- | -16.1% | $- |
![]() | B0GVZ7B584 | Sudaporn | 2026-04-03 | No | $8.5 | -pcs | $- | 0.47% | $- |
![]() | B0GVZNBJ6D | Sudaporn | 2026-04-03 | No | $8.68 | -pcs | $- | 1.38% | $- |
![]() | B0GX5P941C | Sudaporn | 2026-04-14 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0FW4BDF5V | Chiffonade | 2025-10-14 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
这个市场不值得进入:新品牌与新上架产品的成功率都是0%,而且已经出现明显的价格战/低利润环境。 现有数据里,所有被识别为新上架的产品 9/9 都不盈利,整体可判定盈利的产品占比也是 0.00%;这不是“还有机会再试试”的市场,而是一个已经被低差异化和低利润挤压到几乎没有正向案例的市场。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,已经明显过热且接近价格战区。 近两年新进入的品牌几乎全军覆没,最新一批新品牌的成功率是 0%,而且没有看到真正可复制的低成本成功案例;对大品牌和小商家来说,当前都不是好时机。
从时间趋势看,市场不是在变容易,而是在变难。2025 年到 2026 年连续出现新品牌入场,但对应的新产品几乎全部不赚钱:2025 年新品牌相关样本 8 个全部非盈利,2026 年再有 4 个新品牌样本也全部非盈利;按月看,2025 年 10 月有 Chiffonade 的 2 个失败 ASIN:B0FW47JRGR、B0FW4BDF5V,LinnWell 的 B0FVFY59F4 也失败;2026 年 4 月 Sudaporn 的 4 个 ASIN:B0GVZ7B584、B0GVZFGCVP、B0GVZNBJ6D、B0GX5P941C 全部失败。样本里没有任何新品牌盈利,等于新品牌成功率 0%,这是非常强的危险信号。另一方面,当前核心样本 IMUSGO 的 B0D87NYMVL 虽然有 216 条评论、月销 50、月营收 357 美元,但利润率仍是 -2.2%,而且早期投入已到 1413.72 美元,这说明即使有稳定销量,也未必能赚钱;要在这里复制成功,单靠用户 50 万人民币预算并不够看,因为还要额外承担研发、品牌和认证成本。
对大品牌:不建议进场;对小商家:更不建议进场。 这里没有“真实小商家成功样本”,只有新品牌全面失败的证据,也没有出现需要你去追随的健康标杆;若硬要进入,基本只能走高预算、强投放、强供应链甚至带有“压评论/猛投放”味道的打法。可直接参考的失败样本是 Chiffonade(B0FW47JRGR、B0FW4BDF5V)、Povkufii(B0FNMKCCDQ)、Qivorimith(B0G8HVB8G3)、Sudaporn(B0GVZ7B584、B0GVZFGCVP、B0GVZNBJ6D、B0GX5P941C);这些都不该被当成小商家可复制案例。我的判断:市场过热,别进。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |