
这个市场不建议进入,结论很明确:已经进入高风险价格战环境。 现有数据里,新品牌数为0,但最近的新发布里只有25.00%能盈利,75.00%都失败;而且近年的盈利样本几乎只来自老牌 meross,说明不是低成本新人机会,而是被老牌和强功能产品占住了位置。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
不建议进入这个市场。 只有500,000 CNY预算,按当前数据只能勉强覆盖少数单品的前期铺货和投放,但市场里真正跑通的样本很少,且新品整体成功率只有25%,并没有形成稳定的低成本机会;更关键的是,新品几乎被老品牌主导,2026年出现的3个新品全部亏损,已经是明显的价格战/高失败率信号。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不建议进入,结论是不可行。 现有数据只看到一个强势旧品牌 Refoss 的成功样本,B0DJNV3GPR 价格 $195.58,利润率 44.8%,月销 200、月营收 $39,116,看起来很能打;但它是旧品牌的成熟款,不是小品牌可复制的低门槛案例。与此同时,另一款同品牌 B0DMP4K946 已经是亏损且无销售,说明这个细分里产品成败分化很大,靠“跟卖”并不稳。
这个市场不适合进入,原因很直接:新品里几乎没有真正的高成功率空间,利润看起来高的样本基本被老品牌和强品牌拿走,且新入场的竞争已经开始出现明显的低利润和失败堆积。对你现在 50万 CNY 的预算来说,能做的不是“试一把”,而是要非常挑品;但从现有数据看,这个类目不值得推进。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B0DJNV3GPR | Refoss | 2024-10-31 | Yes | $195.58 | 200pcs | $39116.0 | 44.75% | $17504.41 |
![]() | B0FSZYR7V4 | meross | 2025-11-24 | Yes | $166.57 | 100pcs | $16657.0 | 43.52% | $7249.13 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0FSZYR7V4 | meross | 2025-11-24 | Yes | $166.57 | 100pcs | $16657.0 | 43.52% | $7249.13 |
这不是一个适合进入的市场:新品盈利率只有25%,整体可识别盈利率仅20%,而且75%的新品不盈利,典型是高竞争、低容错的价格战环境。 更关键的是,真正的新人成功几乎没出现,盈利样本几乎被老品牌 meross 垄断,说明门槛高、不是靠小规模试错就能稳定吃到利润的市场。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不适合进入,已经进入高风险价格战状态。 近年的新入场几乎全部被老牌玩家包住:2025年只有 meross 的 B0FSZYR7V4 这一个新发布盈利,利润率约44.75%,而2026年新发布里出现了 Sungrass 的 3个新产品 B0GG3X8YNC、B0GGBGWGGX、B0GD55DYRR,全都不盈利,说明最近的入场不是“更容易赚钱”,而是“更难赚钱”。
证据很直接:市场整体只有20.00%产品可盈利,新发布产品也只有25.00%可盈利;而且近一年看不到新品牌真正跑出来,所有盈利新发布都来自老品牌 meross,失败的新发布也全部来自老品牌 Sungrass。 这说明新品牌并没有形成有效突破,成功依赖的是老品牌的品牌力和功能差异化,而不是低成本复制。代表性成功款是 meross 的 B0FSZYR7V4,售价约166.57美元,月销100台,月收入约1665.70美元,利润率44.75%,核心卖点是 Home Assistant、本地控制、无订阅、太阳能余电联动;但这类成功并不便宜,属于需要产品力、品牌力和持续营销投入的打法。对比之下,Sungrass 的 B0GG3X8YNC、B0GGBGWGGX、B0GD55DYRR 都落在失败样本里,特征是外观和功能都高度接近竞品,说明单纯堆参数不够。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |