
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,已经是明显的价格战区,而且对大品牌和小商家都不友好。 现在可识别的12个新发布产品,盈利率是0.00%,新上架利润几乎全部落在-31.16%到-3.17%之间;这不是“少数失败”,而是系统性难赚。市场里新品牌10个、老品牌15个,虽未达到你定义的30+新品牌超饱和警戒,但结合新品全亏、近几个月持续有人进场却持续亏损,实际体感已经很接近饱和内卷。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进,用户预算也不够,且已经进入明显的价格战区。 当前可见的新入场产品里,市场盈利率是 0.00%,新产品盈利率也是 0.00%,而且近期新品几乎全部是亏损或低效上架,说明不是“少数失败”,而是系统性难赚。你的预算 50万人民币虽然远高于单个新品建议的约 1059.26 美元起步资金,但这个数只覆盖前期供货、物流和基础投放,不含研发、品牌、认证等长期成本;在这种环境里,就算大预算也很难把新款做成稳定盈利。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入:已经明显过热,而且正在价格战里。 新品牌有10个、旧品牌15个,新增产品12个,但新上架产品盈利率是0%,新上架利润区间是-31.16%到-3.17%,这说明不是“还有空间”,而是几乎所有新货都在亏钱;按你给的标准,这就是高风险市场,既不适合小卖家,也不适合大品牌现在硬冲。
这个市场不值得进入:新品几乎全军覆没,利润率被压到价格战区间,且新品牌没有任何真实成功样本。 目前看到的不是健康增长,而是低价互砍:新品里可识别利润的12个样本中,75%低于0%、16.67%只有0%~10%,没有任何新品达到15%以上;整体可识别利润样本30个里,46.67%低于-10%,30.00%在-10%到0%,等于77%都在亏损或接近亏损,典型的高风险饱和市场。
从品牌和案例看,这里新品牌基本没有生存空间。10个新品牌样本里,盈利率0%,亏损率100%;连老品牌MBAIYO也没有盈利新品,3个产品全部亏损或低毛利,其中B0FVSJPH6W虽然有55条评论、月销100、月营收730美元,但利润率只有5.84%,早期投入却高达1440.34美元;更差的B0FH2HMG2H月销200、月营收1428美元,利润率也只有6.3%。新品牌Ezymivs的B0FT339T39更是直接-13.19%,Xyembu的B0G656KVGT是-18.46%,这说明要在这里赚钱,靠的不是普通小店能力,而是更强资金、品牌势能或更激进投放;但即便如此,当前也没看到可复制的高利润成功样本。产品层面也印证了这一点:失败原因几乎都集中在“缺少差异化”“市场太小或竞争极强”“利润太低”,例如B0CY7TM8H2、B0FB95CNC4、B0G656KVGT都属于同类通用款,外观和功能高度雷同,根本没有壁垒。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Products with negative profitability ranked by lowest profit value. Only includes products classified as non-profitable regardless of release date.
![]() | B0CY7TM8H2 | LANBEAUTIFY | 2024-03-16 | No | $4.81 | 50pcs | $240.5 | -33.74% | $-81.14 |
![]() | B0CRSZG2L6 | Luomorgo | 2024-01-09 | No | $4.33 | 50pcs | $216.5 | -25.7% | $-55.64 |
![]() | B0F4DPRM8R | Apausvcm | 2025-05-10 | No | $4.89 | 50pcs | $244.5 | -21.36% | $-52.22 |
![]() | B0FT339T39 | Ezymivs | 2026-01-27 | No | $5.38 | 50pcs | $269.0 | -13.19% | $-35.48 |
![]() | B0FH71FM9K | TIESOME | 2025-07-19 | No | $5.96 | 50pcs | $298.0 | -9.92% | $-29.56 |
![]() | B0D1RCD84X | Trinkrittey | 2024-04-15 | No | $5.79 | 50pcs | $289.5 | -4.17% | $-12.07 |
![]() | B0F382CRXK | Psyqtsuary | 2025-04-21 | No | $5.97 | 50pcs | $298.5 | -1.93% | $-5.76 |
![]() | B0FB95CNC4 | LUSTRIB | 2025-05-29 | No | $6.33 | 50pcs | $316.5 | -1.28% | $-4.05 |
![]() | B09BFBPK16 | Jiayouy | 2021-07-29 | No | $7.99 | 50pcs | $399.5 | 0.88% | $3.52 |
![]() | B07GRMFX7Z | SANITRO | 2018-08-22 | No | $9.0 | 50pcs | $450.0 | 7.63% | $34.34 |
![]() | B0FVSJPH6W | MBAIYO | 2025-10-11 | No | $7.3 | 100pcs | $730.0 | 5.84% | $42.64 |
![]() | B0FH2HMG2H | MBAIYO | 2025-07-08 | No | $7.14 | 200pcs | $1428.0 | 6.3% | $89.97 |
![]() | B0G8JY3D2R | MBAIYO | 2025-12-18 | No | $3.97 | -pcs | $- | -39.46% | $- |
![]() | B0G656KVGT | Xyembu | 2025-12-10 | No | $4.97 | -pcs | $- | -18.46% | $- |
![]() | B0G38XB22D | Rimoev | 2025-11-21 | No | $5.72 | -pcs | $- | -24.5% | $- |
![]() | B0GKPCCF2P | Xosjska | 2026-03-22 | No | $4.0 | -pcs | $- | -38.27% | $- |
![]() | B0GSFPDGJQ | Thrymme | 2026-03-13 | No | $6.99 | -pcs | $- | -4.7% | $- |
![]() | B0F2MNX1K8 | KKUANG | 2025-03-27 | No | $7.99 | -pcs | $- | 3.51% | $- |
![]() | B0D86ZK1MJ | KALIONE | 2024-07-22 | No | $5.9 | -pcs | $- | -4.13% | $- |
![]() | B0G5YZ42M9 | Molain | 2025-12-09 | No | $6.17 | -pcs | $- | -10.11% | $- |
New products with negative profitability ranked by lowest profit value. Only includes newly released products classified as non-profitable.
![]() | B0FT339T39 | Ezymivs | 2026-01-27 | No | $5.38 | 50pcs | $269.0 | -13.19% | $-35.48 |
![]() | B0FVSJPH6W | MBAIYO | 2025-10-11 | No | $7.3 | 100pcs | $730.0 | 5.84% | $42.64 |
![]() | B0G8JY3D2R | MBAIYO | 2025-12-18 | No | $3.97 | -pcs | $- | -39.46% | $- |
![]() | B0G656KVGT | Xyembu | 2025-12-10 | No | $4.97 | -pcs | $- | -18.46% | $- |
![]() | B0G38XB22D | Rimoev | 2025-11-21 | No | $5.72 | -pcs | $- | -24.5% | $- |
![]() | B0GKPCCF2P | Xosjska | 2026-03-22 | No | $4.0 | -pcs | $- | -38.27% | $- |
![]() | B0GSFPDGJQ | Thrymme | 2026-03-13 | No | $6.99 | -pcs | $- | -4.7% | $- |
![]() | B0G5YZ42M9 | Molain | 2025-12-09 | No | $6.17 | -pcs | $- | -10.11% | $- |
![]() | B0GQY5TR64 | Quilax | 2026-03-23 | No | $6.02 | -pcs | $- | -13.0% | $- |
![]() | B0GGRXXTWK | Shimmeroo | 2026-01-14 | No | $4.32 | -pcs | $- | -34.49% | $- |
![]() | B0FZZJC3Q5 | EMYVSVO | 2025-11-06 | No | $6.99 | -pcs | $- | -0.39% | $- |
![]() | B0GGZWS3V7 | GEEHUA | 2026-01-15 | No | $6.72 | -pcs | $- | -15.22% | $- |
这个市场不适合进入,结论很明确:新产品整体利润率为0%,新品牌与老品牌的新发布都没有跑出任何可盈利样本,典型是低价挤压下的高风险市场。 用户预算500,000 CNY表面上足够覆盖单个ASIN的启动成本,但真正问题不是“能不能上架”,而是“上架后能不能赚到钱”;按当前样本,连MBAIYO这种已进入市场的品牌也做不到盈利,新品牌Xyembu、Ezymivs同样都是0%盈利率,说明这不是普通竞争,而是已经接近价格战/饱和状态。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场现在不值得进入,结论很明确:新品牌已经进入拥挤区,而且新上架产品的盈利率是 0%,整体已经进入价格战/高竞争状态。 现有数据里,近期开出的 10 个新品牌新上架样本全部亏损,最近一年没有任何可确认的盈利新品牌案例,说明不是“机会少”,而是“进去就很容易亏”。
证据很硬:市场里新品牌有 10 个,老品牌有 15 个;最近新品牌样本 10/10 全部非盈利,成功率 0%;2025 和 2026 的新上架都没有出现盈利样本,反而全部落在亏损区。 月度趋势上,2025/10 还有 1 个亏损新上架,2025/11 增到 2 个,2025/12 增到 3 个,2026/1 继续是 3 个亏损样本,说明不是冷门退出,而是持续有人进场但持续失败。更关键的是,亏损样本里既有新品牌 Xyembu(ASIN B0G656KVGT,约 4.97 USD)、也有老品牌 MBAIYO(ASIN B0G8JY3D2R,约 3.97 USD;B0FVSJPH6W 月收入约 1428 USD 但仍未达到可接受盈利),以及 Rimoev、Shimmeroo、GEEHUA、Quilax、Thrymme、Xosjska 等,说明竞争不是靠“先发”就能赢,而是靠更强预算和更强打法硬拼。
对大品牌和小品牌都不友好。 大品牌如果硬进,至少要按单个新 ASIN 约 1059.26 美元的起步预算准备,而且这还只覆盖前期供货、物流和基础投放,不包含研发、品牌和认证;但当前新品牌盈利率 0%,利润区间还显示新上架产品大致在 -31.16% 到 -3.17%,这代表即使加预算也未必能穿透。对小商家来说,没有任何“真正小商家成功案例”可参考,且现有成功/失败模式显示产品高度同质化、缺少差异化,基本是低价通用款互相内卷。结论:不要进入。 big brand 也不是高胜算,小商家更没有可复制的成功路径;如果一定要做,必须先找到明显创新和品牌护城河,否则就是把钱投进低毛利陷阱。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |