
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,属于高压竞争、偏价格战的赛道。 新品牌成功率只有15.38%,失败率高达84.62%,而且近一年新增产品几乎是1胜10败,竞争不是在缓和,而是在加剧;虽然新发布产品里仍有20.18%~34.98%的利润空间,但多数新品牌已经被压到低利润甚至亏损,说明机会更多被老牌和强产品力吃走了。
从数据看,这个市场已经出现明显的挤压:近一年新进入品牌只有9个,但新发布产品有15个,其中真正盈利的只有2个;按品牌看,UXENPHXF 这类新品牌里,1个赚钱、2个亏钱,整体非常不稳定。更关键的是,老品牌 Bio-Oil 依然有 7 个盈利产品、总月收入约 9,968.02 万元,单品如 B004AI97MA 月销约 2 万、利润率 33.18%,B00AREGVUM 利润率 38.71%;Mederma 的 B0F8BSQWJC 也能做到 96,150 美元月收入。说明大品牌有持续吃量能力,新品牌想硬闯会被渠道、品牌力和资源直接压制。但小品牌不是完全没路,真正能活下来的案例只有少数且必须做差异化:BodyJ4You 的 B0GK4X72YF 和 UXENPHXF 的 B0G8DCCPRX 都是靠棒状/滚珠这类更便携、涂抹方式不同的产品形态切入,利润率分别约 30% 和 24.27%,而像 UXENPHXF 的 B0GC61PBRB 只有 9.4% 利润率,已经落入价格战区。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很直接:这个市场不值得进入。 这不是一个适合小商家试错的赛道,利润看起来能做,但新品牌成功率太低、低利润款太多,而且已经有老牌大品牌用品牌力长期吃掉利润,属于高风险、偏价格战市场。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这不是一个适合进入的市场。 当前核心样本里新品牌新上架成功率只有15.38%,失败率高达76.92%,而且新品牌只有2个,却已经出现1个赚钱、1个亏钱,说明新入场结果非常不稳定;更重要的是,老品牌新上架成功率为0%,这说明这个品类不是“谁来都能做”,而是被成熟品牌和强产品力卡住了。
这个市场不适合进入,核心原因是新品牌成功率太低、且已经出现明显的低利润竞争。 当前可识别的盈利产品占比只有52.5%,但新发布产品的盈利率只有13.33%,而新发布产品中未达标的占比高达76.92%,这说明新进入者大多在亏钱或刚起步就被挤压;同时,近几个月新产品发布明显增多,2026年已出现8个新发布失败、仅1个新发布盈利,市场热度在上升,但不是机会,而是竞争加剧。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
B07VWSN95S | CeraVe | 2019-08-14 | Yes | $18.49 | 30000pcs | $554700.0 | 33.05% | $183328.35 | |
![]() | B004AI97MA | Bio-Oil | 2011-04-10 | Yes | $20.92 | 20000pcs | $418400.0 | 33.18% | $138825.12 |
B00AREGVUM | Bio-Oil | 2012-05-12 | Yes | $29.57 | 10000pcs | $295700.0 | 38.71% | $114465.47 | |
![]() | B000VPPUEA | Bio-Oil | 2015-06-10 | Yes | $10.82 | 20000pcs | $216400.0 | 17.56% | $37999.84 |
![]() | B0F8BSQWJC | Mederma | 2025-05-12 | Yes | $19.23 | 5000pcs | $96150.0 | 31.42% | $30210.33 |
![]() | B0B3R1R2DG | Beauty of Joseon | 2022-03-03 | Yes | $15.53 | 2000pcs | $31060.0 | 26.37% | $8190.53 |
![]() | B0DT7PRZNX | Cicatricure | 2025-01-16 | Yes | $24.4 | 800pcs | $19520.0 | 35.41% | $6912.04 |
![]() | B08XMMQVT8 | Bio-Oil | 2021-02-26 | Yes | $21.44 | 1000pcs | $21440.0 | 31.51% | $6755.75 |
![]() | B08KLL7T7H | Bio-Oil | 2020-09-21 | Yes | $17.57 | 1000pcs | $17570.0 | 28.69% | $5040.84 |
![]() | B089FB2JH6 | Differin | 2020-06-10 | Yes | $20.74 | 700pcs | $14518.0 | 32.99% | $4789.49 |
![]() | B0C2WS842H | Bio-Oil | 2023-03-31 | Yes | $19.72 | 700pcs | $13804.0 | 30.74% | $4243.35 |
![]() | B000237W2Y | Derma E | 2014-01-05 | Yes | $19.94 | 600pcs | $11964.0 | 32.36% | $3871.56 |
![]() | B08XMKNLVJ | Bio-Oil | 2021-02-26 | Yes | $16.86 | 800pcs | $13488.0 | 28.2% | $3803.62 |
![]() | B09FRJZ577 | Better Shea Butter | 2021-09-30 | Yes | $24.0 | 400pcs | $9600.0 | 33.27% | $3193.92 |
![]() | B0CRTRLXFH | DearMYDEW | 2024-01-09 | Yes | $12.96 | 400pcs | $5184.0 | 21.37% | $1107.83 |
![]() | B0G8DCCPRX | UXENPHXF | 2025-12-18 | Yes | $14.41 | 100pcs | $1441.0 | 24.27% | $349.74 |
![]() | B0GK4X72YF | BodyJ4You | 2026-01-28 | Yes | $19.99 | 50pcs | $999.5 | 31.78% | $317.65 |
![]() | B004VTULSC | Palmer's | 2012-08-13 | Yes | $17.8 | 50pcs | $890.0 | 29.7% | $264.33 |
![]() | B0CR72N3SW | Bio Mystery | 2023-12-30 | Yes | $15.44 | 50pcs | $772.0 | 26.31% | $203.12 |
![]() | B0F43K753Z | Cicatricure | 2025-04-08 | Yes | $12.89 | 50pcs | $644.5 | 21.57% | $139.02 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0G8DCCPRX | UXENPHXF | 2025-12-18 | Yes | $14.41 | 100pcs | $1441.0 | 24.27% | $349.74 |
![]() | B0GK4X72YF | BodyJ4You | 2026-01-28 | Yes | $19.99 | 50pcs | $999.5 | 31.78% | $317.65 |
结论很明确:这个市场不适合进入,尤其不是小品牌的好机会。 新品牌成功率只有15.38%,失败率高达84.62%,而且真正能证明“普通新品牌也能赚钱”的案例几乎没有;更糟的是,老品牌新上架产品的成功率是0%,说明这个细分里连成熟品牌都很难靠新款打穿,已经是高压竞争场。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不值得进入,已经进入高风险价格战状态。 近一年新品牌只有9个,但新上市15个里只有2个真正赚钱,成功率仅13.33%;而最近一年新增产品几乎是1胜10败,失败明显加速,说明竞争正在变得更难,不是更容易。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |