
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,已经进入明显的价格战和拥挤期。 近一年新品牌一共9个,但真正跑通的只有 Manoai 1个;按新品牌新品看,成功率只有6.25%,按全部新上新看成功率只有3.57%,失败率高达93.75%~96.30%,这不是正常竞争,而是高风险市场。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
不建议进入,这个市场已经明显失真且偏向价格战。 现有数据里,新品整体可盈利率只有24.24%,而新上架产品的盈利率只有3.57%,最近一年新品几乎都在亏损,2025年8月到2026年6月的新增新品里非盈利样本连续出现,属于高风险、低容错市场。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这不是值得进入的市场:28个新上架里只有1个盈利,成功率3.57%,而且近乎所有新品牌新品都在亏损/未跑通,已经是高风险价格战市场。虽然表面上还有少数高利润样本,但真正能复制的机会极少;对大品牌和小品牌都不友好,不建议继续推进。
这个市场不适合进入,核心问题不是机会少,而是老品牌和新品牌都在把新上架产品做成高失败率、低利润的拼杀场。 你自己的预算是50万人民币,但当前样本里新品牌新上架的盈利率只有3.57%,而新品牌新上架的不盈利率高达87.50%,这已经不是正常竞争,而是高风险市场;同时,已识别的可盈利新品牌只有 Manoai,但它更像靠强差异化+强营销起量的特例,不是适合普通小品牌复制的稳定路径。
证据很直接:整体可识别盈利产品占24.24%,但新产品里真正落到20%~30%利润带的只有 1 个明确新品牌产品 Manoai(B0GWL7ZXWD),其余大部分新产品都落在“其他”或低利润区;同时,失败样本里 Wati For Skin(B0FLXJNJ47)和 Global Beauty Care(B0FM9S8BH9)都被判定为不盈利,原因都是同质化强、竞争极端、利润偏低。反过来看,赚钱的样本几乎都来自老品牌/大品牌:RoC 的 B0009RFB76 月营收 43.8 万美元、B0BLJ396QC 月营收 2.58 万美元,VT COSMETICS 的 B0D4VX2BLM 月营收 7.8 万美元,I DEW CARE 的 B0861DSC5T 也靠差异化设计和品牌力赚钱;这些都说明大品牌要进场也必须重投入,而小品牌如果没有明显功能差异、包装差异或内容投放能力,基本没有胜算。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
B0009RFB76 | RoC | 2014-05-29 | Yes | $21.9 | 20000pcs | $438000.0 | 36.57% | $160176.61 | |
B00JJPMXDO | CeraVe | 2014-04-11 | Yes | $14.4 | 20000pcs | $288000.0 | 27.43% | $78998.4 | |
B0D4VX2BLM | VT COSMETICS | 2025-07-29 | Yes | $26.0 | 3000pcs | $78000.0 | 39.23% | $30599.4 | |
![]() | B0BLJ396QC | RoC | 2022-11-04 | Yes | $12.9 | 2000pcs | $25800.0 | 27.24% | $7027.92 |
![]() | B07K4CQDKC | Burt's Bees | 2018-12-13 | Yes | $16.9 | 400pcs | $6760.0 | 29.21% | $1974.6 |
![]() | B0015ZAOGO | Mario Badescu | 2013-12-15 | Yes | $19.66 | 200pcs | $3932.0 | 32.04% | $1259.82 |
![]() | B0017JAYPY | Mario Badescu | 2014-08-10 | Yes | $19.9 | 100pcs | $1990.0 | 29.76% | $592.23 |
![]() | B0GWL7ZXWD | Manoai | 2026-04-09 | Yes | $19.61 | 100pcs | $1961.0 | 28.27% | $554.38 |
![]() | B0773T1WWC | Era Organics | 2017-11-16 | Yes | $18.49 | 75pcs | $1386.75 | 30.5% | $422.96 |
![]() | B01N1ZJ278 | Timeless Skin Care | 2017-06-20 | Yes | $23.26 | 50pcs | $1163.0 | 34.89% | $405.78 |
![]() | B0CSKS7K56 | The Face Shop | 2024-01-17 | Yes | $22.0 | 50pcs | $1100.0 | 36.81% | $404.91 |
![]() | B0861DSC5T | I DEW CARE | 2020-03-17 | Yes | $21.1 | 50pcs | $1055.0 | 33.12% | $349.42 |
![]() | B0CLLND5R6 | Grospe | 2023-10-23 | Yes | $11.42 | 200pcs | $2284.0 | 12.42% | $283.68 |
![]() | B0CCXSG4NM | Pyunkang Yul | 2023-07-27 | Yes | $11.87 | 100pcs | $1187.0 | 19.47% | $231.11 |
![]() | B0FJDNZTV8 | Quick Fix | 2025-07-14 | Yes | $9.85 | 50pcs | $492.5 | 10.39% | $51.18 |
![]() | B0FJDQCLNL | Quick Fix | 2025-07-14 | Yes | $9.85 | 50pcs | $492.5 | 10.24% | $50.44 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0GWL7ZXWD | Manoai | 2026-04-09 | Yes | $19.61 | 100pcs | $1961.0 | 28.27% | $554.38 |
这个市场不适合进入:新品牌成功率只有 6.67%,整体新上新成功率也只有 3.70%,而失败产品占到 93.33%~96.30%,已经是明显的高风险、接近价格战和过度拥挤市场。 也就是说,不管是大品牌还是小品牌,现在进去都很难靠正常打法赚钱,尤其旧品牌的新上新全部失败,说明老玩家的新增策略也失效了。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不适合进入,结论很明确:已经进入价格战/高饱和区,用户不应继续。 2025到2026的新品牌新上架几乎全军覆没:新品牌新发布产品成功率只有6.67%,失败率高达93.33%;按整个市场看,新发布产品总体盈利率只有3.57%。同时,最近新增品牌数量达到9个,但真正盈利的只有 Manoai 1个,而且它的成功还明显带有“低价+功能差异化+早期广告/疑似大量推广”的特征,不是能复制给普通小商家的健康案例。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |