
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,已经进入高压竞争和事实上的价格战区。 近一年新品牌共有4家,但38个新品牌新品里只有1个跑成,成功率仅2.63%;市场里大多数新产品的利润都集中在10%以下甚至直接不赚钱,说明不是“能不能做”的问题,而是“普通做法基本打不赢”。
证据很硬: 新品牌里真正跑出来的只有 VELVET CAVIAR 的 B0GNP62153,单品售价 29.99 美元,预算约 1870.23 美元,月销约50件、月收约1499.5美元,利润率40.67%,但它同时也有29个新产品没跑出来;KRTALS 虽然有7个新品盈利,但整体看仍有6个新品不赚钱;Qoovi 4个新品全部失败;ESR 作为老品牌,6个盈利新老产品支撑了销量,但其新发布的 B0GVCYKQHP 也没跑出来。这说明市场不是没有赢家,而是赢家主要来自老牌资源和少数强势新品牌,普通新卖家很难复制。市场走势也在变难,2025年到2026年新品发布持续增加,但盈利并没有同步上升,反而新品牌新品成功率维持在极低水平,竞争在加剧,不是在放松。
按你关心的两类玩家看: 大品牌可以参考 ESR、Vinich、KRTALS 这类已经有成熟打法的品牌,但要做好至少 3,700~4,100 美元级别的单品启动预算,而且还没算研发、品牌和认证;小商家方面,只有 VELVET CAVIAR 这种“少量单品+较高定价+差异化颜色/外观”的案例可勉强算成功,但它并不代表普通小卖家可复制,反而更像靠强营销和细分包装撑出来的例子。Qoovi 的样本直接证明,低价跟风款在这里很容易全军覆没。最终判断:大品牌也不建议进,小商家更不建议进;如果一定要做,必须有明显功能差异、外观差异或渠道优势,否则就是在高风险市场里硬碰价格战。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很直接:这个市场不值得进入,用户预算 50 万 CNY 也能覆盖启动资金,但市场本身已经明显偏向价格战与失败率高的状态。 仅看新品牌数据,新品牌新上架产品盈利率只有 26.3%,但非盈利率高达 97.37%;市场整体可判定盈利的产品占比只有 37.72%,而新品盈利率只有 23.44%,说明大多数新进入者并没有跑出来,继续做只会更像在和低价与流量烧钱硬碰。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入:已经明显进入价格战区,而且对新卖家极不友好。 现有样本里整体可盈利产品只占37.72%,但新上架产品可盈利率只有23.44%;更关键的是,近年新进品牌里像 VELVET CAVIAR、Qoovi 这种新品牌,绝大多数新品都没跑出来,说明新品牌不是“低门槛机会”,而是被高失败率筛掉。
这个市场不值得进入,已经明显进入高压竞争区,不适合大品牌或小商家继续加码。 现有数据里,新产品可识别的盈利率只有23.44%,但真正能算“新品牌成功”的只有VELVET CAVIAR这一家,30个新品里只做成1个,成功率仅3.33%;同时2025年后期到2026年新上架数量持续增加,但大批新品都落在“未盈利/暂未验证”区间,说明竞争在加速,而不是在变好。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B0D9W9VYPN | ESR | 2024-07-22 | Yes | $12.89 | 6000pcs | $77340.0 | 21.31% | $16481.16 |
![]() | B0F6667PL5 | Vinich | 2025-06-15 | Yes | $22.77 | 500pcs | $11385.0 | 36.32% | $4135.04 |
![]() | B0CYM9GJG1 | kate spade new york | 2024-03-20 | Yes | $40.0 | 200pcs | $8000.0 | 41.44% | $3315.2 |
![]() | B0D9WBH1BZ | ESR | 2024-07-22 | Yes | $15.81 | 400pcs | $6324.0 | 30.26% | $1913.65 |
![]() | B0D9W66RXJ | ESR | 2024-07-22 | Yes | $15.75 | 400pcs | $6300.0 | 30.24% | $1905.12 |
![]() | B0DL5S5Q1H | ESR | 2024-10-28 | Yes | $15.82 | 400pcs | $6328.0 | 26.94% | $1704.77 |
![]() | B0DXYMZNG7 | ESR | 2025-04-30 | Yes | $15.76 | 400pcs | $6304.0 | 26.83% | $1691.37 |
![]() | B0CLMB1LB5 | kate spade new york | 2023-10-23 | Yes | $39.97 | 100pcs | $3997.0 | 41.51% | $1659.16 |
![]() | B0DXZ9FWRV | ESR | 2025-02-21 | Yes | $15.47 | 400pcs | $6188.0 | 26.74% | $1654.68 |
![]() | B0CKLTN7WG | kate spade new york | 2023-10-06 | Yes | $39.67 | 100pcs | $3967.0 | 41.4% | $1642.34 |
![]() | B0CKLXFYVP | kate spade new york | 2023-10-06 | Yes | $39.58 | 100pcs | $3958.0 | 41.42% | $1639.41 |
![]() | B0CRB9K5Q3 | KRTALS | 2024-01-02 | Yes | $17.13 | 200pcs | $3426.0 | 32.91% | $1127.5 |
![]() | B0FG7P8J66 | Vinich | 2025-08-15 | Yes | $26.99 | 100pcs | $2699.0 | 38.93% | $1050.73 |
![]() | B0FG7R3N1P | Vinich | 2025-08-08 | Yes | $26.99 | 100pcs | $2699.0 | 38.86% | $1048.84 |
![]() | B0G1Z6PL5Q | Vinich | 2026-01-08 | Yes | $26.99 | 100pcs | $2699.0 | 38.85% | $1048.57 |
![]() | B0GSQLJD5Y | KRTALS | 2026-03-16 | Yes | $16.32 | 200pcs | $3264.0 | 31.86% | $1039.92 |
![]() | B0FG7P7K3Q | Vinich | 2025-08-15 | Yes | $25.37 | 100pcs | $2537.0 | 38.78% | $983.85 |
![]() | B0FG7S43VN | Vinich | 2025-08-15 | Yes | $25.54 | 100pcs | $2554.0 | 38.16% | $974.61 |
![]() | B0F661YZZC | Vinich | 2025-06-16 | Yes | $25.45 | 100pcs | $2545.0 | 38.18% | $971.69 |
![]() | B0FG7PYXQD | Vinich | 2025-08-08 | Yes | $25.37 | 100pcs | $2537.0 | 38.08% | $966.09 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0FG7P8J66 | Vinich | 2025-08-15 | Yes | $26.99 | 100pcs | $2699.0 | 38.93% | $1050.73 |
![]() | B0FG7R3N1P | Vinich | 2025-08-08 | Yes | $26.99 | 100pcs | $2699.0 | 38.86% | $1048.84 |
![]() | B0G1Z6PL5Q | Vinich | 2026-01-08 | Yes | $26.99 | 100pcs | $2699.0 | 38.85% | $1048.57 |
![]() | B0GSQLJD5Y | KRTALS | 2026-03-16 | Yes | $16.32 | 200pcs | $3264.0 | 31.86% | $1039.92 |
![]() | B0FG7P7K3Q | Vinich | 2025-08-15 | Yes | $25.37 | 100pcs | $2537.0 | 38.78% | $983.85 |
![]() | B0FG7S43VN | Vinich | 2025-08-15 | Yes | $25.54 | 100pcs | $2554.0 | 38.16% | $974.61 |
![]() | B0FG7PYXQD | Vinich | 2025-08-08 | Yes | $25.37 | 100pcs | $2537.0 | 38.08% | $966.09 |
![]() | B0GNP62153 | VELVET CAVIAR | 2026-02-16 | Yes | $29.99 | 50pcs | $1499.5 | 40.67% | $609.85 |
![]() | B0GSVKVQ76 | KRTALS | 2026-03-17 | Yes | $17.79 | 100pcs | $1779.0 | 32.39% | $576.22 |
![]() | B0GSVD5C49 | KRTALS | 2026-03-17 | Yes | $17.76 | 100pcs | $1776.0 | 32.35% | $574.54 |
![]() | B0GSVS6F66 | KRTALS | 2026-03-16 | Yes | $15.98 | 100pcs | $1598.0 | 31.45% | $502.58 |
![]() | B0GSVNH8MM | KRTALS | 2026-03-16 | Yes | $15.95 | 100pcs | $1595.0 | 31.4% | $500.83 |
![]() | B0GSVHG5MG | KRTALS | 2026-03-16 | Yes | $15.92 | 100pcs | $1592.0 | 31.37% | $499.42 |
![]() | B0GSQP7JQS | KRTALS | 2026-03-16 | Yes | $15.97 | 100pcs | $1597.0 | 30.73% | $490.76 |
![]() | B0FG7SKJNR | Vinich | 2025-08-08 | Yes | $25.44 | 50pcs | $1272.0 | 37.96% | $482.86 |
这个市场不值得进入,已经接近价格战区。 新产品整体盈利率只有23.44%,但新品牌自己的新发布产品里,盈利率只剩2.63%,失败率高达97.37%;再看总体可识别产品,盈利率也只有37.72%,说明竞争已经很重,靠普通上架几乎打不赢。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不适合进入,属于明显的价格战/饱和风险市场。 近一年新品牌新上架的成功率只有2.63%(38个新品牌新品里只有1个盈利),而整体新产品成功率也只有24.19%,说明胜者很少、失败面很大;同时最近几个月发布量持续走高,但盈利并没有同步增长,反而大量新品落在“不盈利”区间,市场是在变难,不是在变好。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 20 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 29 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |