
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,已经处在明显的价格战和高饱和状态。 新品牌成功率只有13.04%,而新品牌新品里86.96%都不赚钱;最近一年的新品牌上新更是18个失败、只有3个成功,趋势是在变差,不是在变好。
从竞争结构看,市场里只有12个新品牌,但已经出现了明显的内卷信号:新品牌新品成功率13.04%,远低于你要求的可接受线;利润区间也很差,当前新产品利润范围大约在-12.67%到16.67%,说明多数产品都卡在低利润甚至亏损边缘。按你给的规则,<10% 属于价格战区,这里大量样本都落在这一区间,Generic 还直接出现了3个新上架全部亏损,说明通用跟款基本没有空间。
如果分两类看:大品牌虽然有资源硬打的可能,但也不是“好进”,只能参考 COSLUS、TOOLETRIES、Cxguu、Cekomady 这类已经验证过的案例;其中 COSLUS 的成熟款利润率约24.32%,TOOLETRIES 的成功新品约22.43%,Cxguu 的成功新品约18.99%,Cekomady 的成功新品约13.74%。但要注意,TOOLETRIES 的另一新品已经亏损,Cxguu 也有2个新品亏损,说明就算是能跑出来的品牌,也是在靠明显差异化和投放硬撑,不是稳定蓝海。小商家基本更难,真正能算小商家成功案例的只有 Cxguu、Cekomady 这类新品牌里少数做出功能/外观差异化的 ASIN:B0GLYRSGM2、B0FWCM2VDH、B0FFTKNJT9;它们都不是普通洁面刷跟款,而是做了淋巴塑形、轮廓设计、包装差异和场景差异。你的50万CNY足够做单个ASIN的起步,但这只够前几个月的备货、物流和投放,不足以覆盖长期品牌战、研发和认证成本。短结论:别进;如果硬要进,只能做强差异化、并接受高投放高风险。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
不建议进入,这个市场已经明显进入价格战区,且对新品牌不友好。 预算上看,用户的50万CNY足够覆盖少数可见的起步样本,但不足以把自己安全送进长期竞争;更关键的是,市场里新品牌新品盈利率只有14.29%,非盈利率高达85.71%,而老品牌新品盈利率为0%,说明不是“谁来都能赚”,而是大多数新入场都在亏钱。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不适合进入:新品牌里真正跑出来的只有少数,而且大量新品都卡在低利润甚至亏损区,已经是明显的价格战/同质化竞争场。对大品牌来说,靠资源硬砸仍然“可能”做,但要付出很高投放和产品创新成本;对小商家来说,只有极少数做出明显差异化的案例能活下来,普通跟款基本会亏。
这个市场不建议进入:利润率整体偏低、品牌数量偏多,已经接近价格战和饱和区。 新品里真正站得住脚的只是一小撮,而且多数还带有明显品牌/投放优势;对小品牌来说,靠常规打法很难赢。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B0GLYRSGM2 | Cxguu | 2026-02-03 | Yes | $12.26 | 3000pcs | $36780.0 | 18.99% | $6984.53 |
![]() | B0FDR29P18 | COSLUS | 2025-07-15 | Yes | $15.72 | 1650pcs | $25938.0 | 24.32% | $6308.13 |
![]() | B0FFTKNJT9 | TOOLETRIES | 2025-09-02 | Yes | $12.99 | 200pcs | $2598.0 | 22.43% | $582.74 |
![]() | B0FWCM2VDH | Cekomady | 2025-10-15 | Yes | $13.74 | 100pcs | $1374.0 | 17.97% | $246.91 |
![]() | B0BVY23QR9 | VWMYQ | 2023-02-27 | Yes | $9.75 | 100pcs | $975.0 | 11.66% | $113.69 |
![]() | B08GZJRLNZ | VWMYQ | 2020-08-30 | Yes | $9.72 | 100pcs | $972.0 | 11.51% | $111.88 |
![]() | B08GZGV5WB | VWMYQ | 2020-08-30 | Yes | $9.7 | 100pcs | $970.0 | 10.97% | $106.41 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0GLYRSGM2 | Cxguu | 2026-02-03 | Yes | $12.26 | 3000pcs | $36780.0 | 18.99% | $6984.53 |
![]() | B0FFTKNJT9 | TOOLETRIES | 2025-09-02 | Yes | $12.99 | 200pcs | $2598.0 | 22.43% | $582.74 |
![]() | B0FWCM2VDH | Cekomady | 2025-10-15 | Yes | $13.74 | 100pcs | $1374.0 | 17.97% | $246.91 |
这个市场不值得进入,已经明显偏向价格战且对新手不友好。 新品成功率只有13.04%,但失败率高达86.96%;更关键的是,只有3个盈利新品,且真正能成立的小品牌案例非常少,说明不是“机会多”,而是“能活下来的极少数靠差异化和投入撑住了”。
证据很直接: 市场里盈利新品的代表只有 Cxguu 的 B0GLYRSGM2、TOOLETRIES 的 B0FFTKNJT9、Cekomady 的 B0FWCM2VDH;它们都不是低配通用款,而是做了功能/外观差异化,且利润率分别约18.99%、22.43%、以及同类高位。反过来,非盈利新品几乎清一色是通用脸刷/淋巴刷,利润率大量落在10%以下,甚至出现 -0.09%(Generic 的 B0GWHXBVV6)和 2.81%(Cxguu 的 B0GLZDY7H5)这种接近白做的情况。老品牌并没有给新人留下空间:HIEERBUS、Tmeng 这些老品牌的新上架全是亏的,说明老品牌在这个子类里也在内卷,新人要么做得很重,要么直接被打穿。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不适合进入,已经接近/进入过热与价格战状态。 新品牌新上架的成功率只有13.04%,整体可识别盈利率也只有15.91%;而最近一年里,新品牌上新几乎是18个失败、只有3个成功,失败率高达85.71%,说明竞争明显在加剧,不是“越做越容易”,而是越来越难。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |