
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,已经是明显的价格战区,而且对大品牌和小商家都不友好。 现有数据里,新上架产品的可盈利比例是0%,新品牌新上架可盈利比例也是0%,利润率区间直接落在-112.58%到-9.99%,说明不是“稍微优化就能赢”,而是“连活下来的空间都很窄”。
证据也很硬:Simple Mills 作为新品牌,2 个新上架产品 B0GSVPGX2Q、B0GSVQ6184 全部亏损,单品牌新产品盈利率 0%;Bugles 作为老品牌,B0G1D3HZFM、B0GZDMYG41 这类新上架也全部亏损;Chesters 的 B0CKS26BN2 虽然月销 4000、月营收约 5,988,000 CNY,但利润率仍是 -9.99%,说明销量并不能换来利润。 这类市场已经进入高压竞争,且没有发现任何<300评价的真实小商家成功案例;相反,能看到的“成功”几乎都不存在,市场也没有向上趋势,最近新产品依旧全部失败,竞争是在加剧,不是在变好。
最终建议:不要进入。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,既不适合大品牌,也不适合小商家。 现在看到的是典型的价格战市场:整体可盈利产品比例 0.00%,新上架产品可盈利比例也是 0.00%,而且新品牌进入后的新产品盈利率为 0%,说明不是“谁更会做就能赢”,而是“几乎没人能赚到钱”。
证据很直接:Simple Mills 作为新品牌,2 个新上架 ASIN(B0GSVPGX2Q、B0GSVQ6184)全部亏损,单品牌新产品盈利率 0%;Chesters 作为老品牌,1 个可识别产品 B0CKS26BN2 月销量 4000、月营收约 $5,988,但利润率只有 -9.99%,仍然亏损。 这说明这个赛道不是靠规模就能稳定赚钱,连有销量的老品牌也被压到负利润。再看产品结构,B07K8RH5CR、B0F2PVFPFP 这类“独特产品”本质卖点仍高度重叠,包装和功能差异都不强,说明市场缺少真正壁垒;同时没有任何“低于 300 评价的真实小商家成功案例”可作为小商家标杆,反而看到的是旧品牌或新品牌都在亏,且新品牌/老品牌新上架产品的表现都为失败,属于明显的高风险、低回报环境。
对预算的判断:用户 50 万 CNY 可以覆盖单个 ASIN 的前期启动,但不足以改变这个市场的失败属性。 你如果是大品牌,仍然会面临品牌投放、包装差异化、可能的认证与长期亏损承压;如果是小商家,根本没有可复制的真实成功样本,且一旦要靠重营销硬推,很容易变成“predatory competitors”式打法。结论:不要进入。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入:已经进入价格战区,而且新品牌几乎没有成功样本。 现有数据里,新发布产品的盈利率是0%,新品牌新发布盈利率也是0%,最近新货还在持续增加,但全部都没跑通,说明这是一个高风险、低回报、明显偏拥挤的市场。
这个市场不值得进入,已经进入明显的价格战/过度拥挤状态。 现有样本里,已知利润率产品几乎全部落在亏损区:已知样本中有35.71%低于-10%,7.14%在-10%到0之间,0%落在10%以上;新产品样本里也没有任何一个进入正利润区,说明新进入者几乎没有喘息空间。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Products with negative profitability ranked by lowest profit value. Only includes products classified as non-profitable regardless of release date.
![]() | B0F72NZBW9 | Bugles | 2025-05-01 | No | $5.29 | 900pcs | $4761.0 | -138.43% | $-6590.65 |
![]() | B0CKS26BN2 | Chesters | 2023-10-09 | No | $14.97 | 4000pcs | $59880.0 | -9.99% | $-5982.01 |
![]() | B0F2PVFPFP | Bugles | 2025-05-26 | No | $4.03 | 500pcs | $2015.0 | -130.55% | $-2630.58 |
![]() | B07K8RH5CR | Andy Capp's | 2018-11-14 | No | $7.17 | 500pcs | $3585.0 | -13.92% | $-499.03 |
![]() | B076HRWTH3 | Bugles | 2018-01-01 | No | $9.69 | 50pcs | $484.5 | -30.91% | $-149.75 |
![]() | B09M7W4QJH | Bugles | 2025-01-27 | No | $8.51 | -pcs | $- | -24.54% | $- |
![]() | B0GZDMYG41 | Bugles | 2026-05-03 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0DM2HC6RN | Andy Capp's | 2024-03-04 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0CFTCVFT4 | Bugles | 2023-05-05 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0G1D3HZFM | Bugles | 2025-11-07 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0FFSMMK12 | Bugles | 2025-06-27 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0FC28DQTF | Andy Capp's | 2025-06-05 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0GSVPGX2Q | Simple Mills | 2026-03-17 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0GSVQ6184 | Simple Mills | 2026-03-17 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
New products with negative profitability ranked by lowest profit value. Only includes newly released products classified as non-profitable.
![]() | B0GZDMYG41 | Bugles | 2026-05-03 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0G1D3HZFM | Bugles | 2025-11-07 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0GSVPGX2Q | Simple Mills | 2026-03-17 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
![]() | B0GSVQ6184 | Simple Mills | 2026-03-17 | No | $- | -pcs | $- | -% | $- |
这个市场不适合进入,结论很明确:已经进入价格战和高压竞争区,新品牌几乎没有真正的成功空间。 现有数据里,整体可判定盈利产品为0%,新上架产品盈利率也是0%,而且最近的新产品发布全是失败,没有任何可验证的成功新案例。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
这个市场不值得进入,已经是明显的高风险价格战市场。 近期开新几乎全在失败:新品牌新上架的成功率是0%,整体可识别盈利产品也是0%,而且没有出现任何真正的新品牌成功案例;反而是近一年持续有新品牌进入但利润全线走弱,说明竞争在加剧而不是变容易。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |