
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入,已经进入明显的价格战区,而且对新品牌和小品牌都不友好。 现在的新品牌成功率只有10.53%,新产品里89.47%都没跑通;再看利润,2026年新发布大多落在“其他/不盈利”区间,说明市场不是在扩张利润,而是在互相压价抢量,继续进场的风险很高。
证据很直接:新品牌只有12个,老品牌5个,但近38个新发布里只有4个盈利;Aliceset承担了34个非盈利新产品中的15个,Tagitary和NNG虽然各有盈利样本,但总量很小,不能代表整体机会。 具体看样本,能跑出来的只有 Tagitary 的 B0GCJPCQ1G 和 B0GCHYWRLF、NNG 的 B0GFDB6716、Lotspasie 的 B0GK7H5S4T,价格大多在20.93–33.60美元,靠的是“老款基础上做功能差异化、分区收纳、超大容量、低价”这类打法;反过来,Cosweet 的 B0GDCTH8XQ 虽然月收入有9375美元,但利润率为-12.14%,AJWXWO 的两款新上架也都没跑通。更危险的是,SKARUMMER 这种老品牌新上新 B0H2PX2TKB 直接没有有效销售,说明这不是“老牌更容易赢”,而是连老品牌都在承压。市场里还没有看到30+新品牌涌入的典型饱和信号,但已经出现了高强度同质化和低利润淘汰,对小品牌来说基本要靠激进投放和强差异化,常规跟款没有机会。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很明确:这个市场不值得进入。 新品牌新上架产品里,盈利率只有18.18%,但非盈利率高达81.82%;更关键的是,市场里旧品牌新上架几乎全部都没跑通,说明这里不是“谁都能做”,而是已经进入了高强度价格竞争和筛选阶段。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入,已经明显进入价格战区,且对新品牌不友好。新品牌新上架的成功率只有10.53%,失败率高达81.82%;同时市场里旧品牌上新几乎全部失败,说明不是靠简单跟款就能赢,而是被低利润和强竞争压住了。
这个市场不适合现在进入,整体已经偏饱和,而且正在走向低利润淘汰赛。 近端新产品的可盈利比例只有10.53%,低于10%的新产品占15.79%,再加上近81.58%的新产品都落在“其他/难判断”里,实际可见的高质量机会很少;2026年新发布里,非盈利新产品明显更多,说明竞争不是在创造新利润,而是在互相压价抢量。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B0GFDB6716 | NNG | 2026-01-07 | Yes | $20.93 | 300pcs | $6279.0 | 13.98% | $877.81 |
![]() | B0FHWBNGGR | DECORSWITH | 2025-07-17 | Yes | $25.19 | 300pcs | $7557.0 | 10.68% | $807.09 |
![]() | B0GCHYWRLF | Tagitary | 2026-04-16 | Yes | $33.6 | 100pcs | $3360.0 | 16.82% | $565.16 |
![]() | B0F1C4G3SN | KEOHOLI | 2025-03-13 | Yes | $26.87 | 100pcs | $2687.0 | 18.51% | $497.37 |
![]() | B0GK7H5S4T | Lotspasie | 2026-05-31 | Yes | $22.07 | 100pcs | $2207.0 | 20.3% | $448.03 |
![]() | B0GCJPCQ1G | Tagitary | 2026-04-07 | Yes | $30.36 | 100pcs | $3036.0 | 14.01% | $425.35 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0GFDB6716 | NNG | 2026-01-07 | Yes | $20.93 | 300pcs | $6279.0 | 13.98% | $877.81 |
![]() | B0GCHYWRLF | Tagitary | 2026-04-16 | Yes | $33.6 | 100pcs | $3360.0 | 16.82% | $565.16 |
![]() | B0GK7H5S4T | Lotspasie | 2026-05-31 | Yes | $22.07 | 100pcs | $2207.0 | 20.3% | $448.03 |
![]() | B0GCJPCQ1G | Tagitary | 2026-04-07 | Yes | $30.36 | 100pcs | $3036.0 | 14.01% | $425.35 |
这个市场不适合进入,已经接近价格战/过度拥挤状态;新品牌成功率只有10.53%,老品牌新上新成功率是0%,不是一个值得下场的市场。 你现在的预算50万人民币看起来够做单个SKU的启动,但市场本身回报太差,靠常规打法很难跑通。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
结论很明确:这个市场不适合进入,已经进入价格战高风险区,且新品牌成功率太低。 过去一年里,38个新发布里只有4个达到可盈利水平,成功率仅10.53%;按新品牌口径看,盈利新发布只有4个、非盈利18个,失败率81.82%。市场正在变难,不是在变好。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |