
这个市场不值得进入:新品牌成功率只有7.69%~11.43%,而新发布产品里88.24%不赚钱,已经是明显的价格战区,且近几个月失败样本持续增加,说明竞争不是变好而是在加速内卷。用户50万人民币的预算虽然足够启动单个ASIN,但在这个市场里只够“入场”,不够“打赢”。
These products have successfully captured market share and are profitable. Their design and features are suggested for your investment, based on market competition, saturation, and demand.
Green indicates better success rate, red indicates poorer success rate. If you are a new brand, focus on the left side; if you are an old brand, focus on the right side.
结论很明确:不值得进场。 这个市场已经接近价格战区,且新品牌成功率低、失败率高;你虽然有50万人民币,足以覆盖单个ASIN前期启动成本,但这不足以抵消后续的品牌、研发和长期投放压力。
Alternative solutions may pose a risk to your investment in certain markets.
这个市场不值得进入:已经明显过热,而且是低利润/价格战环境。 新品牌在近一年里大量涌入,非盈利新发布占比高达80.77%,整体可确认盈利率只有11.64%,说明大多数新品都在亏钱或被迫卷价格;对大品牌和小商家都不是好市场。
证据很直接:2026年新发布产品里,非盈利的数量远高于盈利,1月到6月几乎都是“亏钱新品”在持续增加,6月单月就有11个新品牌/新品失败样本;这不是健康增长,而是明显的拥挤和内卷。 用户预算是500000 CNY,表面上足够覆盖单个ASIN的前期投入,但市场进入门槛并不低:新品推荐预算中位数约4455.18 USD,最低也要1709.29 USD;而真正能跑出来的老品牌新品里,像 bloom daily planners 的 B0FQ61HWSL 只有19.8%利润率、月收入583.50 USD、早期投入约2006.12 USD(广告450.37 USD),Taja 的 B0GH4SRM7N 利润率11.11%、月收入766.50 USD,说明要想站住脚,必须同时吃下产品、流量和品牌力。反面样本更清楚:NOTBOKPA 的 B0FRLMYF2N 虽然月销量50、价格3.99美元,但利润率-61.58%;B0FMJ6J12T 888条评论却仍是-58.77%;POPRUN 6个新发布全部不盈利,属于典型失败新品牌。
这个市场不值得进入:已经进入价格战区,而且新品牌进入信号非常差。 新产品里只有11.43%盈利,且旧品牌新发产品盈利率也只有12.66%,说明大多数新上架都在低利润甚至亏损里挣扎;同时,市场里新品牌/新发产品的非盈利占比高达80.77%,不是健康增长,而是高风险内卷。
All products profit ratio distribution, including all products. For products with insufficient sales or missing profit ratio data, they will be categorized into other rows. This distribution included products that cannot determine the release date.
This are the profit ratios of all new products. There are products without sufficient sales, no more than 100pcs in 3 months, or no profit ratio data, or just released. Those will be considered as 'other'
Most profitable products ranked by profit value. Only includes products with positive profitability and active sales, regardless of release date.
![]() | B0GH4SRM7N | Taja | 2026-01-16 | Yes | $10.95 | 700pcs | $7665.0 | 11.11% | $851.59 |
![]() | B0GHS5BVP6 | JEJEGO | 2026-01-20 | Yes | $9.42 | 400pcs | $3768.0 | 15.79% | $594.97 |
![]() | B0GCXG1KBG | SUNEE | 2025-12-28 | Yes | $11.33 | 200pcs | $2266.0 | 15.32% | $347.16 |
![]() | B0GHSNQS3C | JEJEGO | 2026-01-20 | Yes | $11.36 | 200pcs | $2272.0 | 12.42% | $282.19 |
![]() | B0CQN9W44L | SUNEE | 2023-12-20 | Yes | $9.85 | 200pcs | $1970.0 | 14.08% | $277.38 |
![]() | B0FHJMCMR8 | Taja | 2025-07-15 | Yes | $11.45 | 100pcs | $1145.0 | 22.31% | $255.45 |
![]() | B0FQ61VSY1 | bloom daily planners | 2025-09-08 | Yes | $11.67 | 100pcs | $1167.0 | 20.18% | $235.51 |
![]() | B0FHJRPY3H | Taja | 2025-07-15 | Yes | $10.69 | 100pcs | $1069.0 | 20.27% | $216.69 |
![]() | B0FQ61RLXQ | bloom daily planners | 2025-09-08 | Yes | $10.81 | 100pcs | $1081.0 | 17.49% | $189.07 |
![]() | B0FHKRNTKB | Taja | 2025-07-15 | Yes | $9.69 | 100pcs | $969.0 | 17.09% | $165.61 |
![]() | B0FM3HDP4C | Ymumuda | 2025-08-12 | Yes | $11.96 | 100pcs | $1196.0 | 13.28% | $158.83 |
![]() | B0GH53JMXQ | Taja | 2026-01-16 | Yes | $10.93 | 100pcs | $1093.0 | 10.96% | $119.8 |
![]() | B0FQ61HWSL | bloom daily planners | 2025-09-08 | Yes | $11.67 | 50pcs | $583.5 | 19.81% | $115.6 |
![]() | B0GWHJS9YN | Taja | 2026-04-08 | Yes | $8.05 | 100pcs | $805.0 | 10.12% | $81.47 |
![]() | B0DG9SLX49 | bloom daily planners | 2024-09-06 | Yes | $10.95 | 50pcs | $547.5 | 14.57% | $79.78 |
![]() | B0FM3HMBYB | Ymumuda | 2025-08-12 | Yes | $11.88 | 50pcs | $594.0 | 13.07% | $77.64 |
![]() | B0GHSKNDN2 | JEJEGO | 2026-01-20 | Yes | $10.96 | 50pcs | $548.0 | 11.04% | $60.5 |
Most profitable new products ranked by profit value. Only includes newly released products with positive profitability and active sales.
![]() | B0GH4SRM7N | Taja | 2026-01-16 | Yes | $10.95 | 700pcs | $7665.0 | 11.11% | $851.59 |
![]() | B0GHS5BVP6 | JEJEGO | 2026-01-20 | Yes | $9.42 | 400pcs | $3768.0 | 15.79% | $594.97 |
![]() | B0GCXG1KBG | SUNEE | 2025-12-28 | Yes | $11.33 | 200pcs | $2266.0 | 15.32% | $347.16 |
![]() | B0GHSNQS3C | JEJEGO | 2026-01-20 | Yes | $11.36 | 200pcs | $2272.0 | 12.42% | $282.19 |
![]() | B0FQ61VSY1 | bloom daily planners | 2025-09-08 | Yes | $11.67 | 100pcs | $1167.0 | 20.18% | $235.51 |
![]() | B0FQ61RLXQ | bloom daily planners | 2025-09-08 | Yes | $10.81 | 100pcs | $1081.0 | 17.49% | $189.07 |
![]() | B0FM3HDP4C | Ymumuda | 2025-08-12 | Yes | $11.96 | 100pcs | $1196.0 | 13.28% | $158.83 |
![]() | B0GH53JMXQ | Taja | 2026-01-16 | Yes | $10.93 | 100pcs | $1093.0 | 10.96% | $119.8 |
![]() | B0FQ61HWSL | bloom daily planners | 2025-09-08 | Yes | $11.67 | 50pcs | $583.5 | 19.81% | $115.6 |
![]() | B0GWHJS9YN | Taja | 2026-04-08 | Yes | $8.05 | 100pcs | $805.0 | 10.12% | $81.47 |
![]() | B0FM3HMBYB | Ymumuda | 2025-08-12 | Yes | $11.88 | 50pcs | $594.0 | 13.07% | $77.64 |
![]() | B0GHSKNDN2 | JEJEGO | 2026-01-20 | Yes | $10.96 | 50pcs | $548.0 | 11.04% | $60.5 |
结论很明确:这个市场现在不值得进入,已经接近价格战区,而且对新品牌和小商家都不友好。 新产品整体可盈利率只有11.43%,几乎所有新产品都在亏损或边缘,说明竞争非常挤;更关键的是,真正能靠新品牌干出来的成功案例极少,且多数成功都来自老品牌的延伸,不是纯新手能轻松复制的路径。
证据很硬。 新产品里可盈利只有12个相关样本中的11个“新上架且盈利”占10.78%,但同一批新产品里有90个非盈利,占88.24%;按品牌看,所有新品牌里真正盈利的新产品只有2个,成功率8.70%,低于10%的高风险线。老品牌也没好到哪里去:老品牌新产品成功率11.39%,但失败有69个、占87.34%,说明这是一个靠强品牌和持续投放硬扛的市场,不是轻松扩张型市场。品牌层面,Taja有34个产品、6个盈利、成功率17.65%,JEJEGO有22个产品、3个盈利、成功率13.64%,都说明即使是头部玩家也在大量试错;而Taja单个成功款 B0GH4SRM7N 早期投入就要约6570美元,最近月利润只有851.59美元,意味着不是小预算能稳定复制的生意。相对更像“真小商家成功案例”的是 B0GCXG1KBG(SUNEE),虽然只有329条评论,但它仍依赖老款基础上的改造,月销200、月营收约2266美元,说明要靠差异化设计和功能组合才能站稳;但这类案例极少,不能代表大多数新人可行。
最后一句:不要进。 这个市场不是“机会多”,而是“剩者为王”;老品牌占优、新品牌成功率低于10%、失败率接近九成,已经属于高风险甚至偏饱和市场。
What is the ratio of profitable products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all profitable new products
What is the ratio of different brands owning all nonprofitable new products
结论很直接:这个市场不值得进入,已经进入高风险价格战区,且对新品牌极不友好。 近一年新品成功率只有10.78%,失败率88.24%;2026年新品密集涌入、失败继续放大,说明竞争在加速而不是变好。
证据很明确:2026年新品数量明显上升,但大多数都不赚钱。 2025年新品里只有11个成功、90个失败;2026年上半年又继续出现大量失败,新品发布从1月开始密集爆发,4月和6月尤其拥挤。月度上,2026年4月出现12个高利润新品,同时也有13个失败项;6月只有失败项,没有新增成功。这个节奏说明不是“机会变多”,而是“内卷更重”。
对小卖家更不友好,因为真正的新品牌成功样本极少。 新品牌里只有Ymumuda明确做成了2个盈利新品,其他大多数新品牌都在亏;失败阵营里POPRUN、NOTBOKPA、DreamDove最突出,其中POPRUN有6个失败新品,NOTBOKPA有4个,DreamDove有4个。更关键的是,很多失败品的毛利率在-33%到-61%之间,比如B0FMJ6J12T(NOTBOKPA,-58.77%)、B0FRLMYF2N(NOTBOKPA,-61.58%)、B0GCDJPVRB(Coboll,-26.19%)。少数成功品也不是靠低预算就能复制,像B0FQ61HWSL、B0GH4SRM7N、B0GHS5BVP6这类成功款都依赖老链接、功能叠加和品牌力;其中Taja、JEJEGO、bloom daily planners这类老品牌占了大头,说明这不是适合普通小商家的战场。
关键判断:用户预算50万人民币表面够,但不代表能打赢。 参考新产品进入预算中位数约4455美元,最低约1709美元;但这只是前期供货、物流和基础推广,不含研发、品牌和认证。现在市场里大多数产品利润率低于10%,而且成功高度集中在老品牌和少数“换壳+功能叠加”的产品上,所以不建议推进。
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Y-axis is product counts. X-axis is time period. For each time period, there are 2 column, each column is a released type of a product. Columns are in following orders: New product, New product on old listing
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2026 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41 |
Header is the profit ratios and first column is different time period. Each cells includes how many products are relased at the specific timerange and has a corresponding profit ratios. Only profitable and with active sales (more than 100 pcs in 3 months) will be considered. Any products without sufficient sold units in 3 months will be marked as 'other'.
| Time/Profit% | x < -10.0% | -10.0% <= x < 0.0% | 0.0% <= x < 10.0% | 10.0% <= x < 20.0% | 20.0% <= x < 30.0% | 30.0% <= x < 40.0% | x >= 40.0% | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2025/9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2025/11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025/12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026/1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| 2026/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026/6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |